Anacyclosis
The ancient Greek theory (developed by Polybius) of the cyclical rotation of governments, monarchy to tyranny to aristocracy to oligarchy to democracy to mob rule (ochlocracy) and back to monarchy, the first systematic model of political entropy.
Polybius (c. 200–118 BCE), the Greek historian who witnessed the Roman Republic at its height, developed anacyclosis as a theory of political decay. He observed that every form of government contains the seeds of its own degeneration: monarchy (rule by one good king) degenerates into tyranny (rule by one bad king); tyranny provokes aristocratic revolt, creating aristocracy (rule by the few for the common good), which degenerates into oligarchy (rule by the few for themselves); oligarchy provokes democratic revolt, creating democracy (rule by the many for the common good), which degenerates into ochlocracy (mob rule), which creates the conditions for a strongman to restore order, and the cycle restarts.
This framework is foundational for Predictive History because it provides a structural explanation for why civilizations don't simply improve but cycle through phases of health and decay. The Roman Republic's designers were aware of anacyclosis and tried to build constitutional safeguards against it, the mixed constitution with consuls (monarchic), Senate (aristocratic), and popular assemblies (democratic) was explicitly designed to balance the three elements. They failed; Rome followed the cycle anyway.
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What is anacyclosis? ＋
Polybius's theory that governments inevitably rotate through phases of health (monarchy, aristocracy, democracy) and their corrupt counterparts (tyranny, oligarchy, mob rule) in a predictable cycle, because each good form contains the conditions for its own degeneration.
How does anacyclosis apply today? ＋
It predicts that democracies, as they mature, tend toward populist ochlocracy, when politicians outbid each other for popular favor until the system loses capacity for self-discipline. The rise of demagogues in established democracies fits the pattern Polybius described.