Game Theory #4: The Immigration Trap

Let's look at the United States, which is where most immigrants go. As you can see from this chart, there are certain ethnic groups that do better than other ethnic groups.

Indian people make the most money in America. This makes sense because India has a very competitive college system where only the best and brightest get into their technical institutes. After college, they go to the United States to do graduate work and then go on to Silicon Valley to become engineers; some become doctors. But Indians as a demographic are very successful. Then you have the other Asian groups. Japanese, Korean, Filipino, and Chinese also do very well. East Asians do very well in school and are known for being very hard workers.

The white people are the majority and they are the average, making about $70,000 a year. This is just average income. But what's troubling is that as you go lower, you find that there are certain ethnic groups that don't do well economically. They include Mexicans, Latinos, as well as Black Americans who traditionally have been slaves in America.

So the question is, why is it that certain ethnic groups, specifically East Asian groups, do well economically, and then you have other ethnic groups, specifically Latinos and Blacks, who do not do well economically?

The Traditional Explanation: Culture and Education

The traditional explanation is that certain cultures prize education more than other cultures. In fact, some extremists will go on to say that genetically, East Asians are just smarter than everyone else.

This is the PISA rankings from 2018. PISA is the Program for International Student Assessment. Every three years, the OECD, which is an international organization, organizes tests for 14-year-olds in three subjects: math, science, and reading. Based on these results, the OECD, which is primarily concerned with economic development, forecasts a nation's ability to do well economically in the next 10, 20, or 30 years.

As you can see from this map, there are certain countries that do outstandingly on the PISA. The nations in green do really well. The nations in yellow are average, and then there are these red nations that are below average, meaning that they will suffer economically. The nations that do really well are based primarily in East Asia: Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and China. That's why a lot of people believe that in the future, East Asia will come to dominate the world economically. In fact, there are many who believe that East Asia, especially China, already dominates the world economically.

Then you have these other nations in red that will suffer economically. You have Latin and South America, which traditionally have not done very well on the PISA. You also have Africa and the Middle East that suffer on the PISA, and then you have Indonesia and Malaysia. The nations in gray, by the way, are nations that don't have the development or the infrastructure and logistics to actually have students take the tests.

What you can see about the nations in red is that, first of all, they're primarily based in a region like Latin and South America, but you can also group them by religion. Muslims don't do well on the PISA, and that's why there's great fear that Islamic countries will fall behind economically.

Another concern is immigration. Immigrants from Latin and South America have been moving to the United States, and people from Islamic nations have been moving to Europe. A lot of this immigration is driven by war. Nations like Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq have seen themselves destroyed because of America's war on terror, forcing millions of refugees to seek better opportunities in Europe. This is causing a lot of conflict because, on one hand, these immigrants don't do well economically. On the other hand, they're moving to these very wealthy nations, and that's causing a lot of conflict.

The Paradox: High Achievement, Low Status

From the PISA rankings, it seems as though East Asians will come to dominate the world. The problem is that when you actually look at American society and who succeeds, it turns out East Asians don't do as well as you think they do. If East Asians are the best students in school, go on to the most prestigious colleges, and are the smartest with the highest IQ, you would think they would come to dominate American society. But that's not true.

This is a chart of new CEOs. From about 2000, American corporations tried their best to bring more diversity into the corporate boardroom. Traditionally, CEOs of American corporations have been white, middle-aged men.

It turns out that white women have done the best; they have been the most successful in climbing the corporate ladder in America. What's interesting is that Latino and African-American men do okay—not great, but okay. And who is underperforming are East Asian men. You can see from this map that the growth for East Asian men is pretty steady.

There are different reasons for this. One reason is something called DEI in America: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion. The idea of DEI is to redress historical wrongs. One historical wrong is the fact that women and minorities have been discriminated against in American society, and therefore they should be given more opportunities to succeed. You can argue that because of DEI, East Asian men have been discriminated against because historically, people believe that East Asian men have not been discriminated against, even though that's not correct.

Another way of understanding this is to figure out who succeeds in corporate America. If you look at the qualities of successful CEOs, they tend to be:

• Aggressive or assertive
• Have a high risk tolerance or take chances
• Have high EQ (emotional intelligence), empathy, or collaboration skills

These are the skills you need to do well in American corporations. Unfortunately, the stereotype is that East Asian men don't actually have these skills. East Asian men tend to be much more individualistic, more cautious, and they tend not to speak a lot. They are not known for being articulate, which is something you need in order to do well in a corporate boardroom where there's a lot of debate, argumentation, and where you have to present your view very coherently.

The skills that you need to do well in the corporate boardroom, East Asian men don't have. You can also argue that it's because East Asian men don't have these skills that they have other skills that allow them to do well in school. For example, East Asian men are more focused, more grade-obsessed, more compliant, and more obedient. They like listening to authority, and that's why they do well in school.

But what this means ultimately is a situation in which even though East Asian men do well economically and academically, their status in America is not as great as their income would suggest. In fact, you could make the argument that East Asian men are among the groups that have the lowest status in America, which makes no sense. But unfortunately, the evidence bears this out, especially in the dating market.

The Dating Market: A Stark Reality

Remember, men want to obtain status so that they can find the most attractive mate. We're going to look at statistics from online dating websites. This is from OkCupid, which is one of the more popular dating websites in the United States.

If you are an Asian female and an Asian man gets in touch with you, about 22% of these Asian females will respond to a first message. But what's interesting is that if it's a white guy, then there's more interest: 29%. That's a pretty significant difference.

This is another map that shows us statistics from the dating website. Let's look at white women and how interested they are in other ethnicities.

If you are a white man, they're very interested—in fact, the most interested. If you're Black, they're not as interested. If you're Hispanic, they're not interested. But if you're Asian, they are least interested.

If you are an Asian woman, you're pretty interested in white guys. You're most interested in Asian guys, and you're similarly interested in Black and Hispanic guys. So, it seems that in the dating market, one group that is most discriminated against are East Asian men. Another group that's also discriminated against heavily are Black women.

If you look at marriage patterns, there's also discrimination against East Asian men.

20% of East Asian women will marry white guys. But if you are an East Asian man, you're not that attractive to white women. Only 9% or 10% of Asian men will marry a white woman. This leads to a disparity in the marriage market. What this means is that for East Asian men under 25 years old, 75% are single, meaning they cannot find a date or a partner.

This leads to a very stark conclusion for East Asian men. The reality is that if you're an East Asian man in America, people don't find you that attractive. They did a lot of studies about the dating market in America, and the radical conclusion is this: a white woman is more attracted to a white man than an Asian man. How do we know this statistically? If a white man makes $62,000 a year, for the Asian man to be as attractive to her, the Asian man needs to make $300,000 a year. That's a huge, huge difference.

In other words, a white woman will be attracted to the average white guy, and she will only be interested in the highest-earning Asian guys. These Asian guys are at the top of their fields because $300,000 in America is a lot of money. You have to be a surgeon, a top lawyer, or an entrepreneur to be attractive to just the average white woman.

This is a pretty stark situation for Asian men. You have a really strange situation where East Asian men did everything right. They did exactly what they were supposed to do. They went to school, worked hard, got the best grades, then worked hard at their jobs and did very well. But because they followed the rules, two things have happened. One is that they're not able to climb into status positions in America; they're not CEOs. The other thing is that they have problems finding a very good mate. It's easy for them to find someone of their status or below, but it's very hard for an East Asian man to marry up and improve their status and socioeconomic standing in America.

A Game Theory Perspective on Immigration

This leads us to a very stark disparity. Let's look at this comparison:

You would think that East Asian men will ultimately triumph in the end. But what is really disconcerting is that according to game theory, East Asian men are playing the game wrong. Whereas these other groups—Hispanics, Blacks, Muslim groups—are much more likely to win the game. How can we explain this? The explanation is actually pretty straightforward, but it's very disconcerting.

The answer is: if someone invites you to play his game, don't agree to play by the rules because the game is set up so that you will lose. Otherwise, why would he invite you?

Think of a casino. A casino is like, "Please come in and play our game." Do you think a casino is fair? If the casino were fair, it would go bankrupt. The casino is set up so that you have to lose; otherwise, they go out of business. The same thing with immigration. If a nation like the United States is inviting you into their nation and you play by their rules, you will always lose.

This is what's happening to East Asian men. They go to the United States, they play by the rules, and they'll never climb into status positions. The most attractive of all Asian women will be married off to white guys, whereas East Asian guys will make their money and then stay at home and play video games all the time.

The game is rigged. So the only logical strategy according to game theory is to break the game—cheat. And that's what the other minorities are doing. How do you do that? You don't play the game. You don't go to school and obey the teacher. How to win is by sticking together and having lots of babies. Over time, that will enable you to win the game because of demographics. You're much better off not going to school and being poor, but staying together, being cohesive, and having lots of babies, rather than going to school, getting a good job, and doing everything you've been told to do. Because ultimately, your energy will be stolen from you because of the rules of the game.

The 'Winning' Strategy: Demographics and Cohesion

Immigration is very important because all over the world, poor people are going to rich countries to seek better opportunities. It's really North America (primarily the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. And the people going to these places are from East Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.

You have a situation where East Asians are much more likely to go and conform, but then you have other groups that go and refuse to conform. From a game theory perspective, it is better in the long term for you as a person not to conform than to actually play by the rules of the game. I know it sounds weird, but according to game theory, that's the best outcome for you.

An example is in Europe. They have a huge Muslim problem. These Muslims are less likely to integrate. They don't do very well in school, but they will claim welfare. They will have lots and lots of babies, which is a drain on the economy of these nations. This is what's projected to happen in the year 2050:

• Sweden: 30% of the population will be Muslim
• UK: 17%
• France: 17%
• Germany: 11%
• Italy: 12%

It seems as though there's a population replacement going on. But not only that, because Muslims are much more likely to have more children than Europeans, the Muslim populations will be younger and more energetic, whereas the Europeans will be much older and likely retired. If this trend continues, then Europe will eventually be taken over by the Muslim minority.

The Muslims don't do well in school and they don't make that much money, but look at their advantages. First of all, they are cohesive because of their religion. They are energetic because they're young. And they're united because, quite honestly, the Europeans don't really like them. They are an outcast, considered an enemy by the Europeans. If trends continue, it is most likely that Muslims will control Europe in 25 years.

You have a similar situation going on in America. Look at what's happening in 2050.

The white population is declining. Right now, it's a majority, but by 2050 it will no longer be the majority. Asians are increasing by a bit, but not that much. The real growth is in Hispanics. Not only are they growing in absolute numbers, but again, they are a much more young, energetic group who are more likely to have children. And they are united because they are Catholics. They have a common religion, a common language, and very similar common cultural traits.

According to game theory, if you're an immigrant, your best strategy is not to do well in school and make a lot of money. That will get you nowhere; you're just playing by the rules of the game. Your best strategy is to stick together with your ethnic group, have lots of babies, maintain your religion, and over time, your children and your grandchildren will come to dominate the nation.

The Inevitable Conflict: Population Replacement

The problem with this is that there is no way that the majority—the white people—will just sit back and let this happen. You're going to have a lot of violence and conflict because from the white perspective, this is population replacement. If we just let demographic trends continue, if these outsiders just have a lot of kids and we don't, then eventually our culture will be destroyed.

And they're right. Historically, they're right. Let's talk about some history.

After the ice age, hunter-gatherers spread around. But as the earth was warming, this allowed for agriculture, and so a new group came into being that focused on agriculture: the farmers. They arrived primarily in Anatolia, the Levant, and Mesopotamia.

Because of climate change, they were forced to migrate, and a lot migrated to Europe. When they went to Europe, they forced out the hunter-gatherers. It was not violent because hunter-gatherers have very few people and can move about, but eventually, the farmers were able to displace them.

You also had farmers who went into the steppes, but because it's grassland, it's very hard to farm there. So they developed a new economy called nomadic pastoralism, raising sheep, goats, and cows. As a result, they became very strong, aggressive people.

Again, because of overpopulation and climate change, these people were forced to migrate to Europe. Now there was a war that lasted hundreds of years in which the nomadic pastoralists—the Proto-Indo-Europeans—displaced or eliminated the farmers. We know this from genetic studies: the European farmer men were killed, and the women were taken as brides, basically slaves.

This is a population replacement, and historically, this is what happens. One group comes in and replaces the other. Throughout most of human history, this is a constant cycle. There are very few instances where groups come together and are peaceful. No, because you only have one elite, and one elite must replace the other elite.

How Did Immigration Become the Norm?

If this is historically the situation, how did we get into a situation where immigration has become the norm in today's world? This came about because of the British Empire.

Spain and Portugal discovered new territory in South America. There was a huge population and a lot of mineral wealth, so they could go over there, enslave the population, and convert them to the Catholic religion. The easiest areas to colonize, Spain and Portugal took right away.

But afterwards, Britain started to play this game as well. They also sent colonists, but the problem was that there was no large population to enslave. Also, especially in the United States, there were a lot of aggressive natives. The solution was that the United States, after it won independence from Britain, welcomed immigrants from Europe—specifically Ireland, Germany, and Poland. The reason why is they needed to displace the natives. Immigrants were then encouraged to go to Canada and Australia to build their economies as well.

In other words, immigration today is a historical accident. The Americans were responding to the specific needs of that time. They were a small population against a hostile people in a very large area, so they needed people to come and farm and industrialize the area. This is new in human history, where you could go to a new place and become a citizen. Usually, if you went to a new place, you went because you were a slave.

America welcomed you as citizens if you were willing to contribute, and they allowed you to get rich if you worked hard. Fast forward, and America becomes an empire. You have World War II, and America triumphs. Now America can set the rules of the game for most of the world. At this time, America said to Europe, "You guys fought wars and had fascism because you are a closed society. You don't want immigrants, you're all very nationalistic, and therefore you are violent. America won the war because America is an open society which welcomes immigrants, which is a multicultural society that encourages people to get rich and be happy. So Europe, if you want to be like us, you have to become an open society as well and welcome immigrants just like we do."

That's why we have the situation that we have today. What we need to recognize is that immigration is a new game developed because of certain historical circumstances, but it's not sustainable in the long term. The idea that you can just work hard in school, then go to America and become wealthy, can't be true anymore. In the future, according to game theory, what's going to happen are these violent conflicts between demographic groups because each group is trying to set the rules of the game. Whoever sets the rules of the game will always win the game, meaning they have access to the best jobs, high status, and the best-looking women, which is ultimately what every man is looking for: status, attractive women, power, and money.

What can we do about the current immigration situation?

The problem is, and I hate to say this, but immigration is not natural. If you're born into a community, what is natural is for you to want to help this community grow and develop. What is not natural is for you to say, "You know what, this community sucks. I'm going to go find a new community," because if everyone did that, then no communities could ever exist. 99% of people's natural inclination is to want to work hard and make their community a better place.

You're always going to have a minority of people, maybe 1% or 2%, who are sort of strange and have different ideas, and they're not going to be able to conform. Historically, these people have been killed by their communities, so it's natural for them to get up and leave. But that's only a small group. What is natural is for people to want to just stay where they are because they love their neighbors and their family.

Unfortunately, because of globalization, mass media, and the internet, young people believe that what's important is their own individual happiness and economic opportunity. So they say, "I'm going to go wherever there's more economic opportunity." For example, the very best Chinese students are like, "I'm probably going to make more money in the United States, so I'm going to work hard, then immigrate to the United States, start my own company, and get rich." Some people have success doing that. But if you think about it, this is not good for China. As a nation, why would you encourage your best and brightest to take their skills, move somewhere else, and contribute to that economy rather than to your own?

We are in this situation because for the longest time, America was a global hegemon and could write the rules of the game. And whatever writes the rules of the game will always win. Globalization was a system so that America could extract resources from the world, and these resources include talent. So we have a situation where the best and brightest go to America because that's where they're most likely to thrive.

But now the world is changing. America is no longer the global hegemon. Russia, China—these countries are rising as well. Nations now are much more interested in being able to maintain their best and brightest, their human capital. And this is the way it should be. If you're born in China, then your priority ought to be how to make China a better place. It shouldn't be, "I'm going to work really hard in school so that I can get a visa to go study in the United States." That makes no sense.

The reality is that if you go to the States, you can make a lot of money, but you're still going to be low status. That's the situation I found myself in in North America. I worked really hard in school, I went to Yale, and I could have made a lot of money as a lawyer or as a doctor. But I recognized that if I just stay where I am, I'm not going to ever achieve my potential. I may be wealthy, but I'm never going to achieve high status. That's why I chose to come to China, because I thought there were more opportunities to obtain higher status in China than in the United States, where I'm not white. I'm East Asian, and there's going to be a lot of stereotypes and prejudice against me. And quite honestly, I was right in my assessment.

So you're asking what East Asians in America can do about this. Unfortunately, according to game theory, they're stuck where they are. That's why I chose to leave. But if you're East Asian in America—I'm not saying for everyone, I'm sure there are thousands of very happy East Asians who married very well and have very good lives—but for the majority, you can have decent lives, but you're always going to be low status. And quite honestly, a lot of East Asians are happy with that situation. They're just happy getting by, making good money, and they really don't worry about status. But the problem is that their children and grandchildren are kind of screwed over because it's going to be very hard for them to marry. And again, there are a lot of East Asian men who are single and have problems on the dating market.