Geo-Strategy #5: Why Trump Will Win (And Pick Nikki Haley as VP)

Today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. I'm making the prediction that he will win and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Let me make you the argument.

Why Biden Won in 2020 and May Lose This Year

In 2020, it was a very special year in American politics because it was the largest turnout in American history since about 1900. 74 million people voted for Trump; for Biden, 81 million people voted for him. Two out of every three American adults came out to vote.

It sounds like a very lopsided victory for Biden, 81 million versus 74 million, but because America has an electoral college system, which is not direct democracy, the margin of victory was actually only 65,000 votes. This means that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flipped their votes, then Trump would have won. The margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections.

Let's understand the coalition that brought Biden into the White House.

Black Voters

The first major component of this coalition is Black people. 91% of all Black voters voted for Biden; only 8% voted for Trump. That's a huge majority for Biden. Why did so many Black people vote for Biden in 2020?

First of all, it's because Biden was Obama's vice president for eight years, and so a lot of older Black people had a certain loyalty to him. They felt that they owed this man because he served loyally to Barack Obama for years, and so now they must bring him into the White House. But this year, the debt is paid off, so they won't feel so loyal to Biden.

Also, in 2020, there were the George Floyd protests. In May 2020, a Black man in Minneapolis, George Floyd, was strangled to death by a white police officer. It was captured on video and it caused a national uproar. There were riots and protests throughout the country, and Trump came out and did not acknowledge the pain that Black people felt because of this death. So, Black people felt antipathy towards Trump. These are the two major reasons why Black people voted for Biden in 2020.

But this year, Trump's not in office; Biden's in office. Black people are asking the question: what has Biden done for us these past four years? Unfortunately, the answer is not that much. In fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of Black people. Why?

• Inflation has gone up. When inflation goes up, it usually hurts poor people the most. The standard of living goes way down.
• Illegal immigration has gone up. In 2020, when Trump left office, there were about 10 million illegal immigrants in America. Now there are 20 million illegal immigrants in America, and it seems like Biden's doing nothing to stop this trend. Of course, when illegal immigrants come to the country, they usually take the jobs of poor people. They bring wages down, and that again hurts Black people.
• Ukraine. While the standard of living for Black people and other poor people in America is going down, America is sending tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine to fight a war that has nothing to do with America. Many Americans see this as just bad leadership.

Recent polls show that Biden's lead with Black people is not as much as it was in 2020. This lead is going down.

Young People

Young people tend to vote Democratic in all elections, and they were extremely galvanized to vote in 2020 because they saw Trump as this very hateful racist that they must remove from office. They were driven to believe this because of the George Floyd protests.

Unfortunately, this year, young people may not feel compelled to vote for Biden. In fact, a lot of young people are choosing to sit out this election. Why? Gaza. As you know, right now throughout America on college campuses, young people are protesting the war in Gaza. These young people are not going to vote for Trump, but they probably will not vote for Biden as a protest against American policy vis-à-vis Israel.

College-Educated Voters

70% of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the coastal elite—the coastal professional managerial elite—and they usually overwhelmingly vote Democratic. This year they will still do the same, but they will be less enthusiastic because of what they perceive to be poor global leadership. Under Biden's watch, Ukraine blew up, but so did Gaza. Many are starting to feel that it's because Biden comes across as too old, too weak, and too feeble to stand against Putin. College-educated people will still overwhelmingly vote Democratic—that is the core Democratic base—but they'll be less enthusiastic about Biden and will vote primarily against Trump.

Women

54% of women voted for Biden; 44% voted for Trump. Again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we should expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year. Also, because of abortion issues. Women are very passionate about abortion, and they will come out and vote for Biden to ensure that abortion rights are protected.

Suburban Voters

The suburbs are between the cities (the urban areas) and the rural areas. Cities overwhelmingly support the Democratic party; rural areas overwhelmingly support the Republican party. The suburbs are where the battleground is.

If you look at 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, only 45% of the suburbs voted for Clinton, which allowed Trump to defeat her. What's interesting is that in 2020, this flipped, and 54% of suburban voters voted for Biden. That's a flip of 2 million voters. In elections, it's usually the suburban vote that determines the outcome because they are the swing voters. For Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won that in 2016; he lost that in 2020.

Why the Suburbs Flipped to Biden in 2020

Let's examine very quickly why the suburbs went for Biden in 2020. There are three major reasons.

1. The Media Narrative: Throughout Trump's presidency, the entire mainstream media got together and criticized him. The first major criticism, if you remember, was that he was a Russian asset, a paid Putin puppet. Of course, that was just a complete lie, what we call Russiagate. But then they started to say that Trump was a divisive figure, and this idea caught the imagination of the suburbs. If you live in the suburbs, you tend to be middle class, pretty wealthy, and well-educated, so you like the status quo. You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier.

Throughout the Trump presidency, we saw the polarization of politics; the left and the right hated each other and they fought all the time. What really showed this was the George Floyd protests. You had protesters rioting in the streets, and Trump was like, "Let's send in the military to crush the protesters." People in the suburbs were very worried about this and thought that a leader, the President, should be a uniter. Biden came across as extremely steady, as very establishment, as someone who could unite both the Republican and Democratic parties. That was his perception in 2020.

2. The Pandemic: COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this. They tend to have children who go to school, and they tend to be older. They thought that Trump's handling of the pandemic was very incompetent. He was a political outsider, but that meant he could not get things done in Washington.

3. Kamala Harris: This is key. Biden picked Kamala Harris to be his vice president, his running mate. Let me tell you a little about Kamala Harris. Her father is Jamaican, her mother is Indian, and when she was young, her dad left the family, so her mom raised the two girls by herself. Harris is an extremely accomplished person. She went to Stanford, then she became Attorney General of California, then became a U.S. Senator.

There are three reasons why the suburbs loved Kamala Harris:

• She is "like us." She comes across as someone who speaks and thinks like people in the suburbs: well-educated, articulate, smart, and conservative.
• She seemed very establishment. She's not liberal. In fact, when she was Attorney General of California, she was extremely tough on crime. She was trying to send as many people to jail as possible, and sometimes, quite honestly, some of these people were innocent, and she still sent them to jail. She was very controversial as Attorney General, but guess what? People in the suburbs like "tough on crime." They want safety and security because they have kids.
• The redemption story. In 2019, there was a Democratic primary. In June 2019, there was the first Democratic debate. At this point, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden were considered heavy favorites to win the nomination. In that first debate, they got into a very nasty argument on television. Kamala Harris turned to Joe Biden, and he was kind of shell-shocked. He's kind of old, and he doesn't really want to confront her. What Kamala Harris said to Joe Biden was:

Joe, you've been in Washington D.C. for 50 years, and some of your policies I don't support. For example, you did not support the integration of Black and white students together. Well, you know what, Joe? I'm a Black student. I was a little Black girl growing up in the '70s in California, and I got my opportunity to succeed in America because of integration, because I could go to a white school, and you opposed my opportunity to succeed.

Basically, she was calling Biden a racist. At that point, everyone thought that if Biden gets the nomination, there's no way he's going to pick her to be the VP. And then he picks her. What impression do people get of Biden because of this? He doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. He listens. He's a team player. And he has empathy; he understands that voters want Kamala Harris.

These three things—doesn't hold grudges, listens, is a team player, and has empathy—this is anti-Trump. Because of this narrative, women, especially women in the suburbs, went for Biden. Previously, they had gone for Trump. Now they went for Biden because, as it turns out, women want compassionate, empathetic leadership that is decisive and bold but is also tolerant. This is also why, even though Hillary Clinton ran in 2016 and she was a woman, the suburbs didn't vote for her, because she didn't come across as someone who was compassionate, forgiving, and tolerant. This is why Biden was able to win in 2020.

Trump's Path to Victory: The Nikki Haley Strategy

So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? He can copy this exact same thing. And it turns out, he can do this. Why? Because on the Republican side, there's someone called Nikki Haley, and she is very similar to Kamala Harris.

Nikki Haley's parents are Indian immigrants, so she's of South Asian descent. Her family was not very wealthy, but she worked hard and she became South Carolina's governor for two terms. Then she joined the Trump administration as UN Ambassador in 2016.

What's interesting is that Nikki Haley ran against Trump in the Republican primary. And even though she lost, there was a group of people who loved her, who voted for her in droves. Guess what demographic group? Suburban women. College-educated suburban women. In other words, if Trump brings her onto the ticket, it's very likely he can swing the suburbs back to him and win the election.

But there's a problem. The problem is that Nikki Haley and Trump got into a very nasty fight during the primary. Nikki Haley said, "Listen, I served under Trump, and I think he's a divisive figure. Right now in our country, we need a unifier. That's why I'm running for president, because I want to unite this country, whereas Trump will only divide this country." And then Trump, being Trump, responded and said Nikki Haley is a "bird brain," she's stupid.

So you see this and you think there's no way Trump will pick her because she's not loyal, and Trump likes loyalty. Also, Trump holds grudges, he doesn't listen, he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. In fact, this past week, there have been news reports that Nikki Haley is in consideration to be Trump's vice president, and Trump came out and said, "I am not considering Nikki Haley."

But let me ask you this question: if in August, during the Republican convention, he does pick Nikki Haley, how would people feel about him? How would the media report this? Nikki Haley is an enemy of Trump. Trump called her a bird brain. Trump said, "I will never pick Nikki Haley." And then in August, he says, "You know what? I was wrong. I think Nikki Haley is the best person to be my VP. That's why she'll be my running mate in November."

How would the suburbs think about Trump? He's a changed man.

The narrative about Trump is that he is a five-year-old child. People were like, "Don't insult five-year-old children like that. Five-year-old children are much more mature than Trump." The argument about Trump is that he's divisive, but much more than that, he's immature. He's incapable of growth. But if in August he picks Nikki Haley to be his VP, then the media will be like, "He is a changed man. He's learned his lessons. He's willing to let go of grudges. He's willing to listen. He now has empathy. Therefore, he should be president."

Then what happens is the suburbs switch over to Trump, and then he wins. If he picks Nikki Haley in August, he will win. I'm not completely sure that he will pick Nikki Haley; I think that this is his best strategic move. But Trump is not really predictable. Who he picks as vice president will give us a good clue as to how he will govern when he becomes president.

Who Is Nikki Haley?

The question then is, who is Nikki Haley and what will she do as vice president? What's important to understand about Nikki Haley is that when she left public office in 2018, she had nothing in her bank account. Now she has $1 million in her bank account and she lives in a $5 million mansion. So where did she get this money?

She got this money mainly from an organization called United Against a Nuclear Iran. This organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran. They go against any companies or individuals who support Iran or do business with Iran. One of their main donors was a man named Sheldon Adelson. Sheldon Adelson was an extremely pro-Israel businessman. He owned a lot of casinos, like MGM and Sands. He was a billionaire, and what's interesting is that he was the main patron of a man named Benjamin Netanyahu. He was the main political patron and financial donor to Benjamin Netanyahu. So, Sheldon Adelson supported both Netanyahu and this organization, United Against a Nuclear Iran, which hired Nikki Haley and paid her a lot of money.

Second, in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, so they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely prestigious job, and she was paid $300,000 just to sit on the board and do nothing.

She has also given speeches at an organization called Christians United for Israel. This is a 7-million-strong organization that supports war in the Middle East. They are evangelical Christians, dispensational premillennialists who believe that war between Israel and Iran will bring Jesus back to Earth and establish the kingdom of heaven. Therefore, they want as much conflict in the Middle East as possible.

All this is telling us is that if Nikki Haley becomes vice president, her main responsibility will be to agitate for war against Iran. She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war with Iran and escalating tensions.

What's also interesting is that in January 2019, after the primary was basically over, Haley was able to raise more money than Trump. Haley got about $12 million from donors; Trump got $11 million. The only explanation for this is that these donors knew that Haley would not become president, but they were trying to position her to be his vice president by making her stay in the race and giving her as much publicity as possible. In fact, even though she dropped out of the race, she's still getting about 25% to 33% of all Republican votes. She comes across as an extremely popular establishment figure.

What if Haley holds a grudge and says no?

She has been asked in the past, "Are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president?" And she's said no, because he's divisive and we need to move on from Trump.

Do you remember when we studied Trump's personality, we looked at his days in the WWE? There was a scene where Vince McMahon, the owner of WWE, challenges Trump to a fight. Well, guess what? Politics is the same thing. It's all theater. What Nikki Haley and Donald Trump are doing is pretending to be bitter enemies so that their reconciliation will be that much more dramatic.

Nikki Haley served under Trump in the first administration from 2016 to 2018 as UN Ambassador, and everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP running mate in 2020; he was speaking of dropping Pence and putting her on the ticket. The two of them actually have a great rapport. They respect each other and get along very well.

The second thing to know about very successful politicians is they are first and foremost opportunists. They have no ideas, they have no principles; all they care about is political power. Why would Nikki Haley agree to be vice president? Because it's one step away from the presidency. If anything happens to Trump, she's president. And in four years' time, she can run as the Republican nominee for the presidency. All they care about is political power. They would do anything to achieve it.

What can Biden do to counter this strategy?

Biden has an amazing team of extremely well-paid, professional, experienced strategists working with him. They know this; they can see what's going on. So what can Biden do?

The answer is this: if you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Why? Because he lacks charisma. No one really likes him. When Biden goes to speak, there's no one there to listen to him. He's boring, he has no ideas, and he's old. Biden ran for president two times before and lost both times because he's not charismatic and has no ideas. But Biden was like, "Nope, I'm going to stay in the race because I believe I can win."

If we were discussing this in May or June of 2020, I would have said Biden has no chance. Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people, and they're going to love him and vote for him. Biden gives a speech, and everyone falls asleep. On the debate stage, Trump will destroy Biden.

But then what happened? The George Floyd protests happened. So all these young people who didn't really like Biden were now galvanized to go vote for him. All these Black people, all these suburban voters, they wanted Biden to win because they thought Trump was divisive. And then the pandemic happened, so Trump couldn't go out to campaign anymore. Biden could just sit in his basement and do nothing.

Unfortunately, Biden learned the wrong lessons from 2020. The lesson that he learned is that if he just sits in his basement all day and makes no mistakes, his surrogates—the Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama—will go out and give speeches for him, fire up the base, and he'll win because he's not Trump. That is the entire Biden strategy: "I'm not Trump."

The problem with this idea is that in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump and they knew he sucked. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well. So it's a question of who sucks more, Biden or Trump. People are not going to come out to vote because they think both suck. This means that the party with a base that feels more strongly about the issues is going to come out to vote. And what we know is that the Republican coalition of rural voters, conservatives, Christians, and white voters feels much more passionate about Trump than the Democratic coalition feels about Biden.

Unfortunately, the answer is that Biden has no strategy going forward because he didn't have a strategy in 2020, and he won. So why can't the same thing happen this year? Because Biden is so old—he's 81—he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is. It's much easier for him to sit around and pray that "I'm not Trump" will deliver another election than it is for him to go out and change who he is. He can't change who he is.

Conclusion

Given the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2024. The Biden coalition will not pull together because of inflation, illegal immigration, what's happening in Gaza, and what's happening in Ukraine. Trump looks very strong right now, and the polls suggest that either the race is tied or Trump has a slight advantage.

Trump can basically seal the victory if he picks Nikki Haley to be his vice president because she will turn the suburbs to him very strongly, and it's the suburbs that decide U.S. elections. As vice president, she will be agitating for war against Iran, which means that she's on the payroll of anti-Iranian forces in the United States.

Again, I am not sure who will win this year. I think it's Trump. I'm not sure that Nikki Haley will be his vice president; I'm just making a guess. The reason we do this is to build an analytical model of how the world works. The only way we know if this model works is by making predictions and testing them against reality.

It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, possibly someone named JD Vance. The only thing you need to know about JD Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possible he picks JD Vance. I think he'll pick Nikki Haley, but I often think there's a very good chance he picks JD Vance as well. I'll make the bet that he picks Nikki Haley.

It's also possible that in November, Trump loses. But that's fine. Because if I'm wrong, then I go back to this analysis and make changes so that it's much more reflective and accurate. That's how we try to think critically about the world: by building analytical models that we can then test against reality and, based on what happens, go and refine our model.