Live with Predictive History #2: US-Iran War, World Cup

Why the World Cup Final Matters Geopolitically

The first major news item is the World Cup final between Argentina and Spain. I want to argue that this is actually a major geopolitical event. What happens in the game is going to tell us a lot about the current state of the world.

Right now, on Polymarket, Spain is favored to win. If you just look at its performance in this World Cup, Spain clearly has a superior team to Argentina. In fact, the odds of Spain winning are about 59%, which is very high considering this is the World Cup final.

A lot of people are upset at how unfair this World Cup has been. If you compare Argentina’s matches in 2022 with this year, it is night and day. To get to the final in 2022, Argentina had to defeat the Netherlands and Croatia. In this year’s matchup, it had to defeat Egypt, Switzerland, and England, whereas Spain had to defeat Portugal, Belgium, and France.

Argentina seems to have the much easier bracket. A lot of people also felt that the officials were siding with Argentina on many important decisions.

The big question for us is why this would matter geopolitically.

Spain has been one of the most persistent critics of Israel these past two years, and Argentina has been one of the most persistent advocates and supporters of Israel. The Spanish government famously has a bad relationship with Israel. The Argentine government under Javier Milei famously has a very strong relationship with the government of Israel.

Netanyahu threatened Spain, saying that it might experience sudden power outages and train accidents. This was a direct threat connected to the fact that Spain has been a very vocal critic of Israel these past two years.

Messi is very close to the Israeli government.

There is also an article by Alan MacLeod about Lionel Messi’s ties to Netanyahu, the Israeli military, and Unit 8200.

Lionel Messi is, of course, the most famous footballer in the world, so you would think he would be very careful about whom he associates with. That is why many were surprised when, in 2020, he announced a partnership with OrCam, a relatively small Israeli AI firm that makes wearable artificial-vision devices similar to Google Glass. OrCam markets itself as helping visually impaired people live more fulfilling lives. Messi became its global brand ambassador and the face of the company.

This was a huge coup for a very small company. How was it able to afford such a prestigious brand ambassador as Messi?

It turns out that this company is an outgrowth of the Israeli national-security state, like many of these technology companies. It is connected to Unit 8200.

The article also says that Messi has always had a very strong relationship with Israel. At his 2017 wedding, the Israelis provided security. His international security is now handled by an elite force of former Israeli agents who plan his every move.

Messi is very close to Israel, and this is important because, a month and a half ago, I wrote about how Peter Thiel was making moves on Argentina and how Argentina may become a resource colony of Israel in the future.

It is very important for Israel to control the political landscape of Argentina. If I am Israel—and the thing about Israelis is that they think very long term—I want someone like Messi to become president of Argentina, in which case, whatever he does, the Argentine people will agree with.

I think Messi is being set up to be the next president of Argentina after Milei retires, maybe in five years, and Messi will probably be there for the next 20 to 40 years doing the bidding of the Zionists as well as transnational capital.

This is a very important World Cup. If Argentina wins, Messi wins the Golden Boot or the MVP award, and the game is won in dramatic fashion—meaning he scores the winning goal and is essentially an all-conquering champion, like Achilles in football—then the people will feel tremendous pride and a tremendous sense of gratitude to him. They will essentially vote to make him king of Argentina.

My intuition is that Spain may win. Please do not take this as betting advice. Do not listen to my presentation and think, “Argentina is going to win for sure. Let me bet on Argentina on Polymarket because it is at 41%, so it is good money.”

I actually do not know who will win. My intuition is that Spain is a stronger team and may win.

My argument is that FIFA is essentially about making money. I can understand why it would rig a lot of games to ensure that the final four were France, England, Spain, and Argentina, because these are the four teams with the most market appeal.

FIFA is trying to expand soccer into America because it is really the largest market. It would make sense for FIFA to conjure as much controversy, marketing, and allure as possible. You do that by placing the top four teams in the semifinals. You do not want Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco there because they do not have as much market appeal as France, England, Argentina, and Spain.

I can understand why FIFA would cheat to get to the semifinals, but if it were to cheat in the final, when the entire world is watching, that may be a bridge too far.

Spain has faced so many tough opponents that it is probably much more practiced and confident than Argentina. That said, Argentina is the world champion. It has experience playing in the final, and Messi is a tremendous player. It is magic what he does on the football field.

I saw his game against France in the 2022 World Cup, and his performance was outstanding. He is so strategic. He is so patient. He is a killer. When he sees his opportunity, he is a clincher.

I am torn as to who will win. I will watch the game like everyone else. But if it is clear that FIFA is rigging the game in favor of Argentina, and if Messi scores the winning goal, then I think that is clear evidence that transnational capital and Zionism want Messi to be president of Argentina.

Honestly, I think he would be a very good president of Argentina. Whether he would completely do the bidding of Zionism and transnational capital, we will have to see. A lot of these people—people like Messi—have a mentality very different from ours, and sometimes their behavior can be unpredictable.

Canada, Ukraine, and Balochistan

Canada has announced major investments in defense and says it needs to support the Ukraine war. What will this result in for Canada? Balochistan clearly depends on Pakistan. What is happening in South Asian politics, and where is this leaning?

The Ukraine war will become a forever war for NATO and the Five Eyes. Canada is moving toward a war economy, and it makes a lot of sense because the Canadian economy is not doing well and Canada has a lot of resources.

It makes sense for Canada to participate in this war in Ukraine. Canada is also a resource colony for Great Britain, and the current prime minister, Mark Carney, is clearly an agent of England and an agent of transnational capital.

Canada will involve itself in the war. Expect a shift toward wartime manufacturing capacity. Also expect a possible national draft at some point.

Balochistan is really important because, if I am the United States and I need to launch a ground invasion of Iran, I recognize that this is going to be a pain in the ass. It will take many years, and I need to attack Iran from as many vectors as possible.

One vector is, of course, a Kurdish incursion from Iraq. We are already seeing that take hold, with the Americans arming and financing the Kurds so that they will attack Iran from the northwest.

Balochistan is very important because that has always been a region of tremendous tension between Iran and the local population. Balochistan declaring independence from Pakistan basically absolves Pakistan from any responsibility for what will happen next.

The Americans want special forces to rally the tribespeople and cause as much ethnic conflict as possible in southeastern Iran. They are trying to force the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps out and force it into a ground offensive to stabilize both the southeast and the northwest.

I do not think it will work because the IRGC recognizes that the key to victory is control over the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to threaten the Gulf Cooperation Council. What is happening in Balochistan and Kurdish Iran is not really significant in the grand scheme of things. Iran is a huge country.

Argentina as a Resource Colony

I am from Argentina, and we are following these moves closely. Milei is giving away our lands for nothing, and Thiel has already bought a lot.

That is exactly right. The entire intention is to turn Argentina into a resource colony for transnational capital. Both Israel and the United States are working hard to make this happen.

Argentina is the last great investment opportunity in the world. It is pristine land. It is not really developed. It is protected from world conflict because it is so far away from everyone, and Argentina does not really have any enemies. Brazil will not declare war on Argentina anytime soon.

If I am transnational capital and I am thinking about where in the world I could develop a country to be the next global superpower, it would be Argentina. Argentina is really the best investment.

Another possibility is Australia, but Australia has a really developed economy. It is going to cost me a lot of money to try to take over Australia, whereas it will cost me nothing to take over Argentina because Argentina has a bankrupt economy.

If Messi wins the World Cup and becomes president of Argentina, then transnational capital and Zionism will gain a very strong foothold in Argentina. They can remake Argentina in their image, which is basically to make it into the new United States: a country with tremendous energy.

As the world fights, Argentina will provide the weapons, resources, and financing. Through mass immigration, Argentina will slowly expand outward to encompass its neighbors and take over the entire South American hemisphere. That, I think, is the intention.

Was the Argentina–France game fixed?

I did not watch that game, but I will say that the World Cup seems a bit rigged to me. It seems that FIFA has some intentions. It is possible that some of the players and officials know of this intention and are just playing along.

Ultimately, these soccer players make more money in the long term by cooperating than by resisting.

Is Argentina considered a proxy for the United States and Israel?

Not now.

If I am Israel and transnational capital, my play is first to turn Argentina into a resource colony for Israel. As Israel conducts its wars in the Middle East and establishes the Greater Israel project, it will need a lot of resources.

The Western Hemisphere can become very chaotic as the United States breaks into civil war and attempts to control the entire hemisphere. Argentina seems like a safe bet because it is cheap to invest in and has a lot of resources.

Over time, you basically remake Argentina into the new United States and the new superpower of the world. That, I think, is the intention.

With Peter Thiel continuing the network-state auditioning in Argentina, should we expect attempts to increase cooperation between the Vatican and Peter Thiel, since Argentina’s population is 67% Catholic?

I think there is already a lot of cooperation between Peter Thiel and the Vatican.

I understand that the pope has said AI is a new Tower of Babel, and Peter Thiel basically says that the pope is an agent of China. Guys, this is all theater.

Peter Thiel is a major sponsor of JD Vance. JD Vance recently converted to Catholicism. JD Vance visited Pope Francis, and a few days later Pope Francis died. Then you had an American become pope.

There are a lot of shenanigans going on behind the scenes. The Vatican and Peter Thiel have a lot more in common than they have in difference. I see the two as very strong allies.

Peter Thiel appreciates that Argentina is 67% Catholic and that the Vatican is very strong in Argentina and throughout South America. If Peter Thiel promotes a network state, he is probably going to promote a network Catholic state in Argentina.

Historically, war economies represented around 40% of GDP. Five percent is hardly a war economy. Are you talking about a future trend?

Yes, that is exactly what I am saying.

In Canada and other places, no one is working and the economy is not doing very well. The easy solution is to shift it toward wartime production. It is basically state-mandated manufacturing.

This is what we saw in the lead-up to and during World War II. It is great for the economy. This is something Canada is heading toward.

What about the propaganda battle between Argentina and England regarding the Falkland Islands?

This is a great point.

The United States wants to enforce a Monroe Doctrine, and one area of contention will, of course, be the Falkland Islands. The Monroe Doctrine says that no European power shall interfere in the internal affairs of the Western Hemisphere, and now you have England controlling the Falkland Islands.

I think Argentina will eventually reclaim the Falkland Islands, and there is very little England can do about it.

Again, this is the idea of making Argentina into a resource colony of Israel. During the World Cup, the Argentine team unfurled a banner saying that the islands belonged to Argentina. They did not call them the Falkland Islands, of course, because that is the English name.

There are already disputes between Argentina and England. After this World Cup, once a lot of Argentine energy is galvanized, I think the next move will be to reclaim the islands. With American support—and it is really the Americans who are pushing this—there is very little England can do.

The Falkland Islands will be a source of contention over the next couple of years.

Who is behind FIFA?

I imagine that the people behind FIFA are also the people behind the International Olympic Committee and other major sporting organizations. These are very powerful families with links to organized crime. They are really among the most powerful families in Europe.

Think about the NFL. Who are these sports-team owners? I would imagine they are basically like the godfathers of their regions. These are billionaires who control organized crime, politics, and a lot of other things.

They recognize that football has become a substitute for war and is the best mechanism for controlling the psychology of the masses. You can imagine that a lot of football is rigged for political purposes.

The people you see up front and onstage are just actors.

Also think about how FIFA gave President Trump the FIFA Peace Prize. If you are just a sporting organization, why would you do that?

I think FIFA is heavily infiltrated by Zionism and transnational capital. We can tell by the way Iran was treated during the World Cup, by the way Argentina is basically being given a red-carpet treatment and shown a direct path to the final, and by the fact that a lot of these games seem heavily biased.

They introduced VAR not to create a more objective, sportsmanlike environment, but to dictate the outcomes they want. A lot of these outcomes are political.

What about Nazi elites relocating to Argentina after World War II?

This is pretty well known. It is not a conspiracy at all.

There were lots of Nazis in Argentina and Brazil. Argentina made a point of welcoming Nazis. Argentina was very supportive of the Nazis during World War II, as was the Vatican, and Argentina went out of its way to smuggle Nazis into the country.

You can argue that a lot of the business and political elite come from a Nazi-influenced background. The Nazis have become a tremendous influence in Argentina.

That does not mean the Nazis and Zionists have any conflict. The Nazis are committed to their ideology. The Zionists are committed to their ideology. Both want to see Argentina as a superpower in the world.

Do you suspect any major event will coincide with the World Cup final to take advantage of so much attention?

I originally thought there might be a false-flag attack during the World Cup. But if Argentina will probably win the World Cup, then they will not do that. They basically want Argentina to feel good about itself so they can promote the next phase of the agenda.

Again, I do not know who is going to win. My logic tells me Argentina. My intuition tells me Spain. I cannot tell you.

What I can tell you is that if Argentina wins, it is clear that the game is rigged in Argentina’s favor, and Messi becomes the hero, then I think it is all scripted and rigged. Messi will become the next president of Argentina and do the bidding of Zionism and transnational capital.

After the World Cup, the Falkland Islands will very shortly become a huge issue in Argentina.

Trump’s Election-Interference Claims

Another big news item from this week is President Trump’s Thursday-evening address. He said that he had uncovered evidence that China tried to interfere with the 2020 election. He also said that illegal immigrants voted or registered to vote and that there was vote flipping.

A lot of people say he is using this to promote his SAVE America Act, which gives the federal government more control over voter registration and the electoral process. They are also saying that President Trump is going to use this to gain more federal control over state elections, which will determine the midterms.

I think this is all true.

This is the way he behaves. If you cannot win honestly, you cheat. He thinks he was cheated in 2020, so it is his right and duty to ensure that cheating never happens again. You do that by cheating better than everyone else.

Thomas Massie, who is now like the folk hero of American politics, called the claim absurd:

“Every piece of voter data Trump mentions here, as well as which elections each voter voted in, is readily available in Kentucky for a small fee.”

Maybe China wanted access to voter files, but you can just pay some money and have that information.

I am also not convinced that China is interested in interfering in American electoral politics. That said, I believe China was rooting for Biden in 2020 because it thought Trump could not be negotiated with. Trump was a loose cannon and was doing a lot of things that discriminated against China.

I do not know what China did specifically to interfere in the election. It is also a question of capacity.

China has the capacity to interfere in Taiwanese elections. China has the capacity to interfere in Japanese elections. I do not think China has the capacity to interfere in American elections, especially at the national level. Maybe it has that capacity at the local level, but definitely not at the national level.

The White House says the number of noncitizen registrations was 250,000, but other sources put it at only 28,000. That is still a lot. Remember that Trump lost to Biden by only about 10,000 votes in some decisive places. If you could strategically flip 10,000 votes throughout the country, that would have given Trump the victory.

As part of his announcement, Trump released a lot of declassified documents. These documents are not secret. They are bureaucratic memos that tell you nothing whatsoever.

What they tell you is that the bureaucracy is divided politically and its factions are always fighting against each other. Are the documents revealing any secrets? No, not really.

One document comes from the National Intelligence Council. It is an assessment of different countries’ intentions and capacities to affect the American political landscape. As you can see in the intelligence community’s assessment of foreign threats to the 2020 election, China did not have the interest or capacity to interfere in the way Trump suggests. Russia did. Iran probably had more interest in interfering in American elections than China.

You can also find bureaucratic documents saying China did have the interest and capacity to interfere. That is how bureaucracy works. You have different political factions saying different things, and it will take forever to sort through all the documents.

Another interesting thing from the National Intelligence Council is its suspicion that Russia tried to shape the narrative in 2020 to help Trump win the election. Russia saw Trump as more pliable and friendly to Russian interests than Biden. It tried to accuse Biden of corruption and orchestrate a high-profile corruption scandal implicating the former vice president.

There is clear election interference, but it goes both ways. Some people were trying to help Biden, and some were trying to help Trump.

Trump does not really care. Trump’s point is that election interference exists, so the federal government should have all the power necessary to prevent it.

Trump is not interested in who is interfering or why. He is just trying to amass more power for himself.

This is already happening. After Trump’s address, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin threatened state election officials with possible prison time if they did not comply with Trump administration methods for determining whether noncitizens were on voter rolls.

Expanding on President Trump’s election speech, Mullin said the Department of Homeland Security had preliminarily determined that there were more than 250,000 noncitizens on voter lists in California, New Jersey, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

Three of these are heavily Democratic states. You can say Pennsylvania is also Democratic. Clearly, they are trying to influence the midterms.

It is possible that the midterms will be very controversial, and it is possible some midterm elections will not even happen. The idea that the Democrats will win the midterms and then impeach Trump—I do not think Trump will just let that happen.

The American Move Into Venezuela

Trump has announced that he is sending 3,000 technicians to Venezuela. Max Blumenthal described it this way:

“In other words, a US military invasion of Venezuela.”

The original report says the preliminary project contemplates sending around 3,000 people to Venezuela, with a significant portion coming from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers alongside civilian specialists in infrastructure, urban planning, logistics, communications, energy, and territorial planning.

In other words, a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela.

That is the next step. The United States will start to colonize Latin America to pursue its imperial interests.

This is stupid because all that will happen is a dumpster fire in which the local population conducts guerrilla warfare against the occupation. But the empire does not care. This is how an empire in decline behaves.

You cannibalize your allies, forcing Europe and Japan to pay tariffs and finance wars against imaginary enemies. You also send your allies to occupy Latin America and steal as much as possible. That way, there are more people who support your imperial presidency.

This is what an emperor does. Trump wants to cross the Rubicon and become king of America. The way you do that is by making sure that people are loyal to you and can steal as much money as possible. The best way to do that is to take over Latin America and let your allies steal its resources.

AI, Data Centers, and the Surveillance State

How will the United States respond to inexpensive Chinese AI providers that are now as powerful as Anthropic and OpenAI at a fraction of the cost? What about Xi Jinping’s opening remarks at the World AI Conference?

Xi Jinping said that he hopes AI will be used to further the interests of humanity rather than degrade humanity.

The United States is building all these data centers not to promote Anthropic and OpenAI. Anthropic and OpenAI do not really have viable business models. The point is to create a surveillance state.

If you are going to war, creating an imperial presidency, and dealing with civil unrest throughout the country, then you need a surveillance state. That is why these data centers are being built.

The United States is building far more data centers than China. I do not know what the business model is for Anthropic and OpenAI.

The journalist Ed Zitron has been making the rounds saying that these are not viable business models. Institutions such as the Bank for International Settlements are saying that the AI bubble will pop at some point.

If this is happening, I guarantee you that they are planning to pop the AI bubble—not to destroy the AI industry, but to destroy wealth, consolidate power, and bring in the American government.

They want the government to take a share in Anthropic and OpenAI. They basically want to nationalize these data centers so that the government is responsible for their upkeep, which is very expensive, and for their protection.

There is growing discontent and fear that people will start attacking these data centers. There is tremendous public backlash against them.

The next step is to pop the bubble, bring in the government, and nationalize a lot of AI data centers. The intention is to move toward an AI surveillance state. Anthropic and OpenAI will be part of this surveillance state, but the current business model will not work. These will become public utilities rather than private companies.

Is Trump going to cancel the midterms?

I do not think Trump is going to cancel the midterms, but I think there will be a lot of disruption.

ICE will be deployed throughout the midterms to suppress voter turnout. That is very important.

It is very hard for Trump to cancel the midterms because they happen at the state level, and I do not think he has the authority to cancel them. But he can disrupt them in many ways: sending ICE everywhere to suppress voter turnout, accusing states of cheating, and creating as much havoc as possible.

A lot of these midterm races will go to court. These court cases could drag on for months, possibly years. It could be very hard to put together the next Congress.

Quite honestly, this is really strange, but the Democrats prefer it this way.

Imagine that the Democrats sweep the midterms and come into office. Their voter base wants them to impeach Trump, stop the war in Iran, and go after Israel. Now they have to deal with their voter base, and the Democrats do not want to do that.

The Democrats would rather sit back, collect donations, receive favorable news coverage, and let Trump be the scapegoat. That is literally what they would prefer.

We know this because of the period from 2016 to 2020, when the Democrats were out of power. Donations were raining on their heads. They were making a shitload of money while their liberal base was galvanized and willing to spend as much money as possible to get rid of Trump.

It is weird, but the Democrats have more to gain from Trump being in office than from removing Trump.

A lot of these Democrats, especially people like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, are Zionists and beholden to AIPAC. They do not want to come in, impeach Trump, and try to stop the war in Iran.

If the midterms are a total dumpster fire and they cannot convene the next Congress, then Congress is no longer functioning and Trump can do whatever he wants. Trump can launch a ground incursion into Iran.

The Democrats think this is the optimal outcome because it allows them to achieve many of their political objectives, makes Trump the scapegoat, and sets up 2028 for a Democratic landslide.

By 2028, you have to imagine that a lot of the things Trump was brought in to do—for example, this war in Iran—will have concluded.

I would not be surprised if the Democrats are very happy not to win the midterms.

How does Russia see the Middle East war?

Russia sees the Middle East war as the end of the American Empire.

What about the rapidly escalating AI war between the United States and China?

I think the conflict between the United States and China is theater.

The United States and China are not really in conflict. Both want to create a surveillance state, and they benefit more from working together to create that surveillance state than they do from fighting each other.

Think about the KGB and CIA during the Cold War. Believe it or not, the KGB and CIA were actually working together to further their institutional interests.

If you are the KGB, how do you justify your power and budget? The fact that the CIA exists. If you are the CIA, it is the same situation.

You basically conspire and work together to create artificial conflict so you can obtain more financing and power from your respective nation-state. You become parasites on the nation-state.

The AI industries in America and China benefit more from working together to hype the AI threat than from actually competing against each other.

I know it is weird, but the nation-state model does not hold up to scrutiny. The United States and China are not really in conflict with each other.

The people who are often in conflict are domestic elites. Rather than seeing the United States and China in conflict, it is better to see different elites fighting for power within China and within the United States.

In China, you have different global factions fighting for power. In America, you have Democrats versus Republicans and the technology oligarchs versus Wall Street.

It seems Trump is upset with China for not pushing Iran to agree to concessions. It does not seem connected to American elections.

I disagree.

I do not think Trump really cares about Iran and the memorandum of understanding because the memorandum is just a smokescreen. Trump is intent on a ground invasion because it allows him to harvest more power.

Trump met with President Xi in Beijing in mid-May. We do not know and will never know what they actually agreed upon, but I would not be surprised if they agreed to work together to further their own domestic political power.

I can see China trying to help Donald Trump gain a third term and providing secret evidence that China interfered in the election when it did not. This would give Trump credibility as he tries to federalize state elections.

Again, I do not think China and the United States are enemies. I do not think Trump cares about China. Trump cares about the Democrats. Trump hates the Democrats. Trump wants to be king, and everything he is doing revolves around one goal: how does he get a third term?

If he does not get a third term, the Democrats will come in and go after him and his family. There are a lot of crimes they have committed these past two years. It is blatant how corrupt they have become.

That tells you Trump has no intention of ever leaving office.

Cuba, Venezuela, and the American Technate

Why is the United States blockading Cuba?

The United States is blockading Cuba because it is part of the Donroe Doctrine.

Trump’s intention is to create the imperial presidency. The entire idea of the imperial presidency is that America will control the entire North American continent as well as parts of South America.

They call this the Technate. The countries that form part of the Technate include Canada, Greenland, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Cuba.

Cuba is just the next domino to fall. Right now, the Americans are imposing a naval blockade. The goal is to create as much discontent as possible and make a Marine incursion relatively simple.

When will China take over Taiwan?

China will not engage in military conflict against Taiwan. It would be suicide for the Communist Party to do so.

Venezuela wants to normalize relations with Israel.

It makes sense for Venezuela to normalize relations with Israel because Venezuela needs transnational capital to develop its oil industry.

The best way to understand what is happening is that Venezuela has become a de facto colony of the United States. The next step is for Trump to send colonial administrators. That is why I referred to the Max Blumenthal post.

What will follow is a domestic insurgency and guerrilla warfare. That is good for the colonial administrators because it gives them access to more power and financing.

This is an empire in decline. The people in charge do not care about furthering America’s long-term national-security interests. All they care about is stealing as much as possible for themselves in the short term. Creating as much conflict as possible allows them to do that.

You can imagine these colonial ministers going into Venezuela and promoting domestic insurgencies to justify a power grab. The power grab allows them to steal Venezuela’s resources, which inflames further insurgencies.

They do not care because their goal is to steal as much money as possible and run away. They are carpetbaggers.

This will be a dumpster fire.

Is Vance setting himself up to act as Brutus to Trump’s Caesar?

No. Vance is not that smart, and Trump is not that stupid. Vance will be discarded well before 2028.

What is the importance of art and creativity? Does America need a new mythology, and what was its old mythology?

America thought of itself through two possibilities.

The first was a Christian utopia. The Puritans wanted to create a Christian utopia in America.

The other possibility was a project of the Freemasons, which was to create an Enlightenment state. The Enlightenment-state idea won out.

If America is to survive, it needs to become Christian nationalist. That is America’s best hope. I think this is what is going to happen. America will become a Christian nation and focus on Christian nationalism.

Will the Democratic Socialists of America continue to grow in power following Mamdani’s success?

The Republicans have a MAGA faction. The MAGA faction conducted a revolution led by Trump and now controls the Republican Party.

The great fear is a DSA faction—the Democratic Socialists of America—represented by Mamdani and Hasan, whom I talked about a couple of weeks ago. They are heavy proponents of the DSA.

The DSA is a psyop. It is basically meant to channel grassroots anger in a way that allows the elite to co-opt it at some point.

The Democratic Party is controlled by an incestuous elite that wants to hold on to power, and it is very good at doing so. Whatever kind of grassroots movement you see among the Democrats is fake. It is a psyop. Do not believe this crap.

That is what my intuition tells me. The Democrats have been co-opted. There is absolutely no hope for them.

The Next Phase of the Iran War

The Americans have entered this war with a new strategy.

The previous strategy was decapitation: take out the ayatollah, take out the main leadership, take out the main bases, and Iran will capitulate and fall.

That did not happen.

Now they have moved on to phase two of the war. In this phase, the Americans are much more strategic about where they attack.

During the first phase of the war, especially in March, attacks occurred everywhere throughout the country, particularly in Tehran. Now they are concentrated heavily in the south.

The reason is that the south is where the Americans would want to launch their ground incursion. Balochistan would be seen as a possible forward operating base.

They also want to cut the IRGC off from the Strait of Hormuz and destroy Iran’s capacity to export oil. That is why they are attacking the islands.

Moving forward, in the next phase of the war—and this is a forever war, so expect it to last 10 or 20 years—the strategy is threefold.

First, send ground forces from Iraq and Balochistan to force the IRGC onto the battlefield.

Second, disrupt the Iranian economy. You do that by targeting critical civilian infrastructure and destroying Iran’s capacity to export oil. This is already happening. A children’s cancer hospital was forced to evacuate after American strikes hit nearby.

Over the next few months, what happens in Iran will be very similar to what happened in Gaza.

After October 7, when the Israelis went into Gaza, they were much more restrained in the beginning because they were afraid of public pressure. A lot of public pressure built up against Israel during the first phase of the war.

Israel then scaled down its operations and laid low for a couple of months. It basically had a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. Israel did not respect the ceasefire, but the ceasefire allowed the majority of people in the world to turn away and turn a blind eye.

That allowed Israel to begin engaging in genocide against the people of Gaza.

We are going to see a similar situation in Iran. During the first phase of the war, there was so much attention on it that America’s capacity to fight at its full strength—basically, to destroy critical civilian infrastructure—was limited.

Toward the end of March, there was talk that America would target power plants. Iranian civilians created human chains around those power plants. They went to the plants and became human chains so that, if America bombed them, civilians would be killed in the process.

You could do that during the first phase because the entire world was focused on the war. You cannot do this in the second phase because no one is really paying attention now. If you send civilians to protect the power plants, the Americans will make sure to kill everyone.

The Americans are now targeting critical civilian infrastructure such as bridges because that gives them the best bang for their buck.

It does you no good to target mountains. It does you no good to target military bases. You need to think about the economics of war. If you spend a million dollars blowing something up, make sure what you destroy costs more than a million dollars.

That is why you target critical civilian infrastructure.

The Americans are also enforcing a blockade against Iranian ships. They are trying to strangle the Iranian economy.

In response, the Iranians are attacking American military infrastructure in Kuwait. A lot of people say that is silly: the Americans are attacking Iran’s critical civilian infrastructure, so Iran should attack the energy fields of the GCC and make the GCC feel pain.

Iran does not want to do that, and that is actually strategic for several reasons.

The world is already going to feel a lot of hate and hurt because Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is already pissing off a lot of the world. It cannot afford to continue aggravating the world, so it needs to create sympathy.

Basically, let the Americans come and destroy your critical civilian infrastructure. This will create global sympathy.

Second, you want to create sympathy and unity among your own people.

The Iranians are really pissed off at America because of what happened during the World Cup. The Iranian team was treated very badly by the Americans.

It is part of Iranian culture to believe that hospitality is a grand virtue. Regardless of whether you hate someone, if that person comes into your house, you have to treat your guest with respect and courtesy. That is what virtue is.

The Iranian team went to America to play in the World Cup and was not allowed to stay in America overnight. The players were forced to fly in at dawn for the match, and afterward they had to fly back to Tijuana, Mexico, where their camp was located. A lot of the Iranian team’s sports staff were not even allowed into the country.

That pissed off a lot of Iranians. I do not think we can truly appreciate how pissed off the people of Iran are.

The people of Iran also believe the World Cup was rigged against Iran. They believe it was a tremendous injustice, and a lot of Iranians want to avenge it.

There was also a recent funeral for the ayatollah where millions came out across Iran and cried for vengeance.

The third thing is what is happening today, with the Americans attacking critical civilian infrastructure and affecting the lives of Iranians. The Americans are targeting power plants, so Iranians will no longer have access to air conditioning during the intense summer heat.

All you are doing is pissing off the Iranian people and making them more willing to fight.

If I am the IRGC, I let the Americans continue doing this because I want to galvanize this anger into action.

The third reason the IRGC will probably be very restrained in its response is that this war will not be decided right now. It will be decided once America sends in ground forces.

The ground invasion will decide who wins and loses the war. You want to force the Americans into a ground invasion because then the tempo and trajectory of the war shift in favor of the Iranians.

The Iranians can determine the tempo and trajectory and become more proactive.

You play possum and make the Americans think you are weak. Then they send in ground forces.

The intention right now is to soften Iran up for a ground incursion. If the Iranians do not strike back forcefully against the GCC, American military planners will believe that Iran’s offensive capacity has been fully degraded. That will allow a full-scale ground invasion.

The War Expands Across the Middle East

Another very important development is the way this war is expanding outward to include the entire Middle East.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as al-Jolani, is now president of Syria. He recently met Donald Trump in Ankara during the NATO summit. Al-Sharaa committed to helping the Americans in Lebanon against Hezbollah, and Trump promised to lift sanctions against Syria.

Syria has explicitly said, “We will not invade Lebanon. We will not fight Hezbollah.” But conditions are already being created in which conflict between Syria and Hezbollah is almost inevitable.

Iran smuggles a lot of weapons and missiles into Lebanon through Syria. If Syria disrupts Hezbollah’s supplies, Hezbollah will be forced to respond in a certain way.

It is very likely that Syria will enter this war at some point. The intention is to have Syria attack from the north and Israel attack from the south to outflank Hezbollah. The Lebanese government will also attack Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is in a lot of trouble.

You also have the Houthis. The Iranians have been trying to create an air bridge and fly supplies into Yemen. Saudi Arabia attacked the airport, and now the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are about to go to war. They are basically at war and have been in a de facto war for the past few years.

This is important because the Houthis will close the Red Sea at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Strait of Hormuz is already closed. If the Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the entire GCC will no longer be capable of exporting oil. This will be a huge problem for the GCC and will basically force Saudi Arabia to enter the war against the Houthis.

Iraq is committed to disarming the Shia militias in Iraq. The reason is that the Americans want to use Iraq as a forward operating base for future operations against Iran.

We are already seeing this war expand outward.

My prediction is that the next phase, maybe a year from now, will expand toward the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus.

As southern Iran comes under American attack, Russia will need to reinforce Tehran through the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan and Armenia could become sources of conflict. Azerbaijan is a very close American ally.

The Americans will think about how to use conflict in the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea to disrupt the supply network to Tehran.

If we look at Central Asia, there seems to be a great game developing between Russia and the United States. This could go kinetic at any point.

If that region goes kinetic, China will not be able to reinforce Iran through the Belt and Road Initiative.

The objective is to cut off supplies to Iran. If there is conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia and throughout Central Asia, Iran will be cut off from its two major allies, China and Russia.

I think that will be the next phase.

Why Not Integrate Iran Into the Global Economy?

Why would the West seek to destroy Iran when it would make more sense to make economic deals and integrate Iran into the global economy and transnational system?

You are absolutely right.

That is why it is hard to understand things from a purely economic and materialist perspective. If that were sufficient, you did not have to invade Iraq in 2003. You could have made economic deals with Iraq. It was perfectly happy to sell oil to you at a major discount.

Iran is in the same situation.

The only way to appreciate this is that this war is eschatological.

Israel wants to achieve the Greater Israel project, so it needs to knock Iran out of the equation. America wants to prevent Iran from forming an alliance with Russia and China.

Unfortunately, this is American imperial policy. Rather than settling disputes peacefully through economic cooperation, America is intent on enforcing its will militarily.

Right now, the greatest threat to American power is a possible alliance between Iran, China, and Russia.

If you trade with Iran, Iran can also trade with Russia and China. Over time, this would allow all three to build a strong alliance and become stronger. You could trade with Iran now, but the great fear is that, in 20 years, Iran will be too powerful to stop or invade.

You have to do it now.

There is the imperial interest, and there is also the eschatological interest.

India, Israel, and Hindutva

India has been a friend of Iran for years and recently a friend of Israel too. Where does India stand in the larger scheme of this war?

India sees Israel as its best ally in the future.

There are only four countries where Israel has a net favorability rating, and one of those countries is India. Around 33% of Indians support Israel and maybe 31% oppose Israel. That is impressive because everywhere else the numbers are heavily skewed against Israel.

What is happening is a growing alliance between Zionism and Hindutva.

Hindutva is basically the Indian version of Zionism. India wants to control most of South Asia, including Pakistan and Afghanistan. Its proponents believe these areas historically belonged to India.

Another way to understand this is that China got rich by exploiting its young population and making cheap products to sell to the West. India now wants to become the next China.

The problem is that India does not have the state apparatus China has. China is an authoritarian nation that can force people from the countryside into urban centers to work in factories. China can then invest a lot of money in critical infrastructure and a great logistics network to transport goods from Chinese factories to American and European supermarkets.

India cannot do that because India is a democracy.

What India does instead—and this is really clever—is export its young people around the world to create an Indian diaspora that can be manipulated to further the Greater India and Hindutva projects.

India has recognized that the best international ally for doing that is Zionist capital or transnational capital.

Think about Argentina, Australia, and Canada, where transnational capital controls these places and Indian labor and energy are brought in to populate them.

India sees its best hope and best ally in Israel. India is always going to support Israel, but obviously India does not want to go to war with anyone else.

India and Israel are a growing alliance.

How may the war in the Middle East affect small countries such as Armenia and Georgia?

This war is going to expand until it engulfs most of the world.

If you are in Georgia or Armenia, you will be brought into this war at some point. This war is a conflagration that is going to spread to encompass everyone.

How can the United States invade Venezuela and Cuba while losing in Iran?

First of all, who says the United States is losing in Iran?

Second, it is the American Empire, and it has different theaters.

The American Empire can do many things that are crazy, nonsensical, and dangerous, but it can pull them off.

Right now, the United States is fighting a war in Ukraine, a war in the Caribbean, and a war in Iran. It will probably open another front in the Asia-Pacific, and North Korea will open up pretty soon as well.

The empire can do many things. It should not do these things, but it can.

The Iranian population is seeking vengeance. What could Iran do to avenge the ayatollah’s death?

The best thing is to wait for the ground invasion.

The Americans are going to come at some point. Just wait for them. Prepare your forces, rally your people, and wait for the Americans to send in their ground forces.

That is what I would do. Be patient.

When will Iran take the gloves off and destroy desalination plants and war facilities in the GCC?

Iran does not see the GCC as completely unified.

It particularly hates the United Arab Emirates, Dubai, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Expect the Iranians to target these places strategically.

Also expect the Iranians to be very restrained in their response. Targeting a desalination plant is basically like using a nuclear weapon. You are causing the population to suffer tremendously.

The Iranians need to be strategic in how they calibrate their response. Targeting desalination plants is a nuclear option. They would be better off targeting oil fields and applying economic pain.

If you target desalination plants, you are going to piss off the entire GCC. It is not in Iran’s interest to piss off the entire GCC. Iran wants to divide and conquer it.

Focus your energy on Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain because these places are the most adamant about regime change in Iran. Hold back against Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

It is not in your interest to piss everyone off.

Oil Prices and the Coming Central Asian Front

How are oil prices not moving despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed? American stockpiles are almost depleted. How much longer can the United States manipulate prices?

Clearly, the United States is manipulating prices.

There is also some cooperation between China and the United States because the main reason prices have not skyrocketed is that China has reduced demand.

As you point out, this is not really sustainable in the long term. Eventually, oil prices will skyrocket. Expect that to happen soon.

What would a kinetic event in Central Asia look like? Would it begin with protests?

Expect terrorist attacks in these regions against critical civilian infrastructure.

Think about Australia, where a drone attacked the Geelong refinery. The goal is basically to kick the hornet’s nest and create as much conflict as possible, which could lead to wider conflict.

The Central Asian map is about two years away, so it is not a major concern at this point. But it will happen at some point as this war escalates.

Why Iran Should Not Concentrate on Israel

Would it be better for Iran to hit Israel hard rather than enter a ground war with the United States? If the Greater Israel project is the goal, would that not hit Israel where it hurts?

I know this is really strange because we know the root of the problem is Israel.

In theory, yes, you want to hit Israel the hardest, and this would be the most emotionally satisfying. But from a military perspective, it does not work.

First, Israel is much more unified and resilient than the GCC.

Imagine that you launch a missile barrage against Israel every day for the next two or three months. All you would do is make Israelis really pissed off at you. You would make Netanyahu really popular, and Israel would go all in against you.

You cannot hit Israel too hard because Israel has nuclear weapons.

Basically, you do not want to do anything against Israel because, if you do nothing, the nation will fracture.

There are elections coming up in Israel in the fall. Netanyahu will probably lose. This will create a lot of civil disruption and political strife in Israel. That is the best way to deal with Israel.

Israel is a nation that will fight to the death. It is a nation that will galvanize and unify very quickly if it feels threatened. There is no point in dealing directly with Israel.

You are better off dealing with the GCC. It gives you better bang for your buck.

I know it is weird, but there is really no point in attacking Israel. You do it now and then for symbolic reasons, to show that you can, and to rally public support. But from a military perspective, you do not gain that much.

Israel is also too far away. You are better off attacking the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Ultimately, this war will not be decided in the air. It will be decided on the ground.

That is why you wait for the American ground invasion. You save your resources, anger and rally your population, and lure the Americans into Iran.

That is how you beat them.

You want to create another Vietnam.