Game Theory #16: Pax Judaica Rising

I cannot predict when this war will end, but I want to make certain predictions about how this war will end. To first understand how the war is going, let's look at some perspectives from US leadership.

This is President Donald Trump talking about the war:

hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked. And the other one, you know, they fought back. They could have yielded. But think of it, if we weren't around, they have tremendous They had tremendous power. They had thousands of missiles, most of which we've terminated. They had thousands of drones. They were making drones and missiles all over the place. We've knocked out most of those factories. They hit.

What he's saying here is that the US went in expecting to hit them, kill the leadership, and then they would surrender. They didn't expect them to fight back. They didn't expect them to close the Strait of Hormuz. They didn't expect that they would hit Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. What he's saying is the US had a plan going in and really didn't think its enemies would fight back.

Next, this is Karoline Leavitt, a press secretary for the Trump campaign:

A president's preference is always peace. There does not need to be any more death and destruction. But if Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment, if they fail to understand that they have been defeated militarily and will continue to be, President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before. President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell.

What she's saying is, "Look, we've defeated these guys, but for whatever reason, the Iranians don't know that." The problem isn't us. We came in with the right strategy. We did everything right. But for whatever reason, the Iranians, being stupid, don't know they've been defeated.

Here is secretary of war Pete Hegseth, representing the Pentagon's perspective:

Never in history has a modern military—Iran had a modern military, a modern navy, a modern air force, modern air defenses, leadership, massive bunker. Never has a modern military been so rapidly and historically obliterated, defeated from day one with overwhelming firepower. The air campaign that we've conducted, that Israel's conducted alongside us, was one for the history books truly. And it's because we have a president of the United States that when he sends his war fighters out to fight, he unties their hands to actually go out and close with and destroy the enemy as viciously as possible from moment one. And that's why we see ourselves as part of this negotiation as well. We negotiate with bombs. You have a choice as we loiter over the top of Tehran, as the president talked about, about your future. The President has made it clear that you will not have a nuclear weapon. The War Department agrees our job is to ensure that and so we're keeping our hand on that throttle as long as and as hard as is necessary to ensure the interests of the United States of America are achieved.

His attitude is that the US is winning this war. "We are kicking ass and we don't have to negotiate because we're kicking ass and we'll continue to do so." This is the attitude of the military. While the US media has been reporting that Donald Trump is seeking an off-ramp and negotiations, Pete Hegseth says, "No, let's negotiate with bombs, man."

This is the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, responding to the problem of Iran closing off the Strait of Hormuz, which affects the oil supply and could disrupt the global economy:

Across the administration and at Treasury, we unsanctioned Russian oil. We knew that there were about 130 million barrels on the water and we created supply that is beyond the Straits of Hormuz. So we anticipated this. We knew that there could be a temporary—and I want to emphasize temporary—choke point there and there was 130 million barrels of floating storage. In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water. It's about 140 million barrels. So depending on how you count it, that's 10 days to two weeks of supply that the Iranians had been pushing out. That would have all gone to China. In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down, you know, for the next 10 or 14 days.

Scott Bessent says, "Ha, we knew this was going to happen and we have a really brilliant plan to destroy the Iranians once and for all." Their plan is to let the Iranians sell their oil and make a lot of money, and then they'll be destroyed. The Americans basically unsanctioned Iranian oil, and because of that, the Iranians were able to make $14 billion just like that. The total Iranian military budget for one year is $10 billion. This is American genius at work. They knew the Iranians wanted to destroy the global economy, so the Americans thought, "Let's make them rich so they can't destroy the global economy. We got them now."

Finally, this is Larry Fink, head of BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, being interviewed by the BBC:

And yet Iran remains a threat. A threat to trade, a threat to the Straits of Hormuz, then I would argue that we could have years, years of, you know, above $100, closer to $150 oil.

Interviewer: What happens to the global economy if that happens?

We'll have a global recession. If there's a cessation of war and yet Iran...

What he's saying is that we can't stop this war now because if we do, the price of oil will be too high for many years. The Iranians will control the Strait, and therefore we must fight this war to the end. What he doesn't address is that if the US hadn't started this war in the first place, it wouldn't have this problem, because the Iranians would have had no pretext to close off the Strait of Hormuz and the globe would have been fine. But he's saying not to worry about that; the problem is the war has started, and therefore we must fight to the end.

The Reality on the Ground

This is a drone launched by an Iranian proxy in Iraq flying over an American base.

As you can see, there's nothing stopping it. It's just flying over this American base, being remote-controlled. It spots two American helicopters and destroys one of them. This means that all these American bases throughout the Middle East are vulnerable. They cannot be protected against cheap drones.

From the American perspective, this war will either bankrupt the Americans or it will be lost. It's very hard to fight this war against a determined enemy.

A Tale of Two Strategies: USA vs. Iran

The Americans are losing this war, and the main reason is the problem of hubris. I want to examine closely what this means strategically and on the battlefield.

War is fought across four dimensions:

1. The Narrative Dimension: Global opinion, how history will perceive this war.
2. The Political Dimension: How your allies and your domestic base perceive this war.
3. The Economic Dimension.
4. The Military Dimension.

If we examine this war closely, the Iranians are fighting a very different war from the Americans.

The American Strategy

The Americans are shifting the narrative, political, and economic spheres to fit their military strategy. Their military strategy is decapitation, which forces surrender. They want to destroy the Iranian leadership and the Iranian economy to force a surrender in which the Americans can dictate terms. That is their strategy, and that's about it. They are forcing the narrative, political, and economic spaces to conform to this military strategy.

• Political: They expect their allies, like NATO, to support their strategy. Donald Trump has ordered NATO to come and open up the Strait of Hormuz. He also refuses to acknowledge that this war is very unpopular back in America.
• Economic: The Americans are trying to keep the price of oil low so it does not disrupt the global economy. They do that by unsanctioning Russian and Iranian oil, which benefits the Russian and Iranian economies.
• Narrative: They are trying to tell the media to follow the party line. Donald Trump has threatened journalists that if they do not report this war is going well, he might put them in prison.

The Iranian Strategy

The Iranians have a different approach. They are using their military in order to impact the economic, political, and narrative spheres. It's a complete reverse. Their military strategy is calibrated to benefit the Iranian economy.

• Economic: The military is strategically controlling the Strait of Hormuz so that Chinese ships can pass, because China is the main buyer of Iranian oil. Also, if you are willing to play ball, like Japan, Qatar, or Oman, they will also let your ships pass.
• Political: The Iranians are trying to split the Gulf States. They know that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are committed to regime change in Iran, but they know that Qatar and Oman are on the other side. They're trying to gain as much global leverage as possible within the GCC.
• Narrative: They're trying to shape global opinion and make everyone believe that they are on the right side of history. And most people believe that. In fact, you have a lot of Americans who are rooting for the Iranians to win.

Advantages and Disadvantages

Let's talk about the advantages and disadvantages of both strategies.

For these reasons, I believe that America is losing this war and that ultimately this war will be lost. When this will happen, we don't know, because America is an empire and can drag this on for at least 20 years.

How the World Will Change

Now that we've discussed why America will probably lose this war, I want to shift our focus to how the world will change because of it. What does the end of this war look like? To do that, it's important to go back to our model of how the world works.

At the very core is the Empire, because the empire provides the muscle—the military might—to shape the contours of reality. With the empire, you have Finance (City of London, Wall Street, Bank for International Settlements, asset managers), and they are the game masters. The empire is the muscle, but finance sets the game.

This creates the Global Economy, which is based on the US dollar. But you can't have people believing this is how the game is structured, because then people won't want to play. So, you create an additional layer of Multilateral Organizations—what the Americans like to call the "rules-based international order"—including the UN and the WTO. This makes people believe the world is structured in a fair, open, and transparent way, hiding the finance and the empire behind it.

To justify this system, you have Culture, Education, and Media, which then create the legal infrastructure and values of different nations.

We also discussed organizations that are above the nation-state, benefiting from the system to keep it going but also to extract rent from it. These include Intelligence, Crime, and Science. The organizing forces behind them are transnational capital, secret societies, and elite families, bound together by a concept called the occult.

The people in these different spheres who benefit from the system have a primary interest in maintaining the status quo. The problem with this system is that at its core is an empire that will probably lose the war in Iran. This creates a problem because if the empire falls, it's possible that this entire edifice falls as well.

The only solution is to replace the American empire with another empire that is able to provide the muscle for this system. And this empire, I've argued in the past, is of course Israel. This is what we call Pax Judaica.

On the surface, it seems like this war is one between the United States and Iran. But in reality, this war is about a war between the United States and Israel. The American Empire has become corrupt, incompetent, and arrogant. And so now, Israel sees an opportunity to replace the American empire in the system. This is something that eventually every aspect of the system will agree to do. The main outcome of this war, when it ends, is that Israel will replace America in the Middle East.

The Fall of the American Empire

The main reason the American empire is falling is the military-industrial complex (MIC).

For most of its history, America did not have a professional army because the founding fathers and most American citizens believed that a standing army was a direct threat to their liberty. But to fight World War I and World War II, they had no choice but to create one. The problem is that after America won World War II, the apparatus stayed and wanted to maintain the status quo, meaning they wanted access to unlimited government funds. This led to the Cold War, which was a justification for the MIC to get as much government funding as possible.

The journalist Julian Assange said this about America: The point is not to have successful wars. The point is not to win wars. The point is to have never-ending wars, which allows the military-industrial complex to transfer American taxpayer money to a transnational elite. The point of wars is for the military-industrial complex to steal as much money as possible from America.

Unprecedented Spending and Corruption

America accounts for 41% of all global military spending.

• China: 8.2%
• Russia: 4.1%

Russia, America's main military enemy, spends one-tenth the amount of money that America spends. You would think this means America is invincible, but people don't recognize the level of corruption within the American military. It is probably the most corrupt institution in the world, by far.

On September 10th, 2001, the day before the 9/11 attacks, Donald Rumsfeld, the Secretary of Defense, held a press conference. He said that after looking at the Pentagon's books, they couldn't find $2 trillion. It was missing from the budget. It went somewhere, but they didn't know where.

Where does the money go? It goes to private contractors.

The Boeing Company Example:

• Government Contracts (1 year): $20 billion
• Lobbying Congress: $16 million
• Bribes to Politicians: $2 million

This is a really good business to be in. You spend $2 million on bribes and $16 million on campaigns, and you make $20 billion. The difference is picked up by the American taxpayer. Boeing is not just a defense contractor but also makes civilian airplanes. For the past few years, there have been quite a few cases of civilian airplanes made by Boeing falling out of the sky. Whistleblowers who were about to testify against Boeing have mysteriously died.

This level of corruption is not sustainable.

America's Constraints in the War with Iran

Right now, America is facing three major issues with this war in Iran:

1. Lack of Political Will: This war is very unpopular in America. Only 40% of the population currently supports it, and support will probably decrease. You need political will because you need Americans to pay for this war. Trump has asked for $200 billion to fund it, and it's possible he will call a national draft.
2. Lack of Manufacturing Capacity: If you lose planes or use too many bombs, you cannot replenish them because you don't have the factories to produce them quickly enough. If this war drags on too long, America will just run out of bombs.
3. Unwillingness to Sustain Casualties: The American military is afraid of reporting deaths because of the fear of political backlash. This is weird because in a war, soldiers die.

If the Americans can't resolve these issues, America will probably lose this war. This gives an opportunity for Israel to prove to the world that it should be the empire.

Israel's Audition to Be the New Empire

Israel can prove it can be the empire by showing that it has political will, more strategic capacity, and is resilient, meaning it is willing to accept casualties. The global elite need an empire to provide the muscle, but the empire must prove that it can serve their needs. An empire must prove three things:

• Unity
• Capacity
• Determination

Let's do a thought experiment. Let's say we're venture capitalists with trillions of dollars, and we're approached by two companies.

• Company A has 100 profitable companies. They don't have a business plan but have lots of resources, experience, and skill. They are sure any new investment will make money.
• Company B is run by young guys who have failed before. But they say, "We're going to put our heart and soul into this enterprise. We're going to work 16 hours a day, every day, for as long as it takes." If the company fails, they're bankrupt and might kill themselves.

If you are the venture capitalist, do you put your money in A or B? Most people would put their money in A because it's low-risk. But if you're smart, you put your money in B because it's high-reward. The people in Company A don't really care if the new enterprise is successful; they can afford to lose. It's more likely they will steal your money. Company B, however, will make sure they grow your money because if they don't, they themselves die.

Israel is auditioning to the world, saying, "We are ready to replace America. We are ready to be the new empire."

A Comparison of Military Approaches

The American MIC is good at producing very expensive weapon systems that, unfortunately, don't really do anything when you put them into war.

• The Patriot Missile System: Supposed to protect the GCC, Israel, and American bases from Iranian drones and missiles. It doesn't really work.
• The F-35 Fighter Jet: The most advanced fighter jet in the world, costing $100 million each. It took 26 years to develop because the MIC is corrupt and wanted to steal as much money as possible. In this war, the Iranians have already shot down at least one of these jets using very low-tech radar.
• The USS Gerald R. Ford: This aircraft carrier cost $13 billion—more than Iran's entire annual defense budget of $10 billion. It went into the war theater and had to run away three weeks later. The official story is a fire in the laundry room. Others say the Iranians hit it with a missile. A third possibility is the Pentagon recognized its severe limitations in actual combat and withdrew it because it was useless.

These weapon systems are not designed to win wars; they are designed to steal as much money as possible from the American taxpayer.

In World War II, during the Battle of Iwo Jima, the Americans lost 6,000 Marines taking the island. That is the sacrifice you need to win wars. Americans today are not willing to sustain casualties. They sent around 5,000 Marines to Iran, hoping that would be enough. It shows they have no strategy and want to win this war as quickly and as cheaply as possible.

The Israelis are different. What happened in Gaza was terrible, a tragedy involving war crimes. But if you are auditioning to be an empire, Gaza is proof of concept. It's showing the global elite, "Look, we're willing to do what it takes to win this war and defend the empire."

• 82% of Israelis support expelling all Palestinians from Gaza.
• 66% believe Amalek (a biblical enemy) exists today and that the war against Gaza is a war for the very existence of Israel.

This is unity. This is determination. The Americans don't have this.

In 2024, there was the famous Lebanon pager attack. The Israelis were able to implant bombs into pagers that went to Hezbollah members and then blew up. From a military perspective, it didn't accomplish that much, but from a psychological perspective, it accomplished a lot. It scared the living hell out of Hezbollah and made the world respect Israel more. Israel spent $275 million to conduct this operation that took decades to implement.

Israel is telling the global elite, "Look, not only will we fight this war for you, not only will we be your muscle, but we'll do it cheaply. Not billions of dollars, millions of dollars."

The Mercenary-to-Empire Pattern

A lot of people believe that ISIS (Islamic State) is actually a creation of Mossad. ISIS attacks everywhere in the Middle East except for one country: Israel. Israel is happy for the world to know this because it's auditioning to be the new empire. Israel is saying, "We don't have to use the American strategy of just bombing everyone to death. That's expensive and not very strategic. We can use Mossad to infiltrate groups and use these groups against their neighbors. It's much more efficient and effective." Israel is saying, "We are much better at controlling the Middle East than the Americans, so let us control it using our strategies."

If you look at history, the relationship between Israel and America is simple: Israel is the pitbull for America. As an empire grows old, it doesn't want to do bad things. It wants to feel good about itself. Therefore, it subcontracts the violence, the murder, the genocide to different people—to mercenaries. This is a pattern throughout human history:

• The Romans started as mercenaries for the Etruscans.
• The Aztecs started as mercenaries for the Culhuacan.
• The Greeks started as mercenaries for the Persians.
• The Mamluks started as mercenaries for the Ayyubid dynasty in Egypt.

In every instance, the mercenaries eventually got to a point where they said, "We are the ones killing ourselves for this empire. The empire is corrupt, decadent, and weak. Why don't we just take it over?" And they did.

We're seeing a similar situation play out today. Israel was created by the British and Americans to be their pitbull in the Middle East, to create instability so they could control the oil supply. Now, the Israelis are saying, "Wait a minute. We're the ones doing all the work, making all the sacrifices, and getting all the hate. Why shouldn't we be the empire now? America's useless."

The Greater Israel Project and the New World Order

Extremists in Israel believe in the Greater Israel Project. They believe God promised the entire Middle East to the Jewish people, extending from the Nile in Egypt all the way to the Euphrates in Iraq.

Something funny about this map is that Iran (Persia) is not part of the Greater Israel Project. So why is Israel going to war with Iran? If they want all this territory, their main enemy is not Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, or Lebanon—they are all destroyed or too weak. Their main enemy is the American Empire. It's the Americans who control the land of greater Israel.

You use this war against Iran to destroy the American Empire by forcing it to invade Iran. When this happens, America will be overextended and forced to retreat from the Middle East. Eventually, America will be defeated and forced to retreat, leaving two regional powers: Iran and Israel. The Israelis have no problem with this. They don't need to defeat Iran to achieve their biblical prophecy, but they do need to defeat the Americans. The Americans are in the way.

Pax Judaica: A New Economic Order

The Greater Israel Project means control of the world's oil—basically 20% of it.

Israel is at the very center of all this wealth. It makes sense for them to take control of these resources and start shipping them to Europe and East Asia. That's what Pax Judaica will look like: a trade network controlling the resources of the Middle East.

Israel also has the most data centers in the Middle East, competing with Saudi Arabia and the UAE for AI dominance. AI is important because it allows you to create a surveillance state, which you need for an empire. The problem for Saudi Arabia and the UAE is they need to import foreign expertise to build and run their data centers. Israel, on the other hand, has the best universities, IT talent, and human capital in the region. It makes perfect sense for Israel to absorb the entire AI network and become the epicenter of AI surveillance, which will become the backbone of Pax Judaica.

This new order is really the India-Middle East-Europe trade corridor.

For India to get to Europe, it has to go through Israel. This trade corridor will unite the South Asian subcontinent with Europe. But not only that, it also connects to Africa, Russia, and Ukraine. The idea is to take Russian and Ukrainian energy and food and transport it into Africa, combining the world. Because of its location, Israel can be the epicenter of all global trade.

Iran's Role in the New Order

This war has basically lifted all sanctions on Iran. The Iranian economy is now able to export its oil all across the world. Trita Parsi, America's foremost expert on Iran, says that Trump and Israel's war has ended up delivering Iran de facto sanctions relief. Before the war, Iran was cut off from the global economy. Because of this war, Iran is now becoming embedded into it. This means Iran is now less incentivized to end the war. The more this war keeps on going, the more Iran benefits economically.

Once this war ends, Iran becomes the epicenter of two major trade networks:

1. The North-South Transport Corridor: This links Russia and Iran together, allowing Russia to access India and Asia, and Iran to access Europe.

2. The Belt and Road Initiative: Iran is also at the epicenter of this trade network. For China to access Europe, it has to go through Iran.

This is what the new world will look like after the war. You'll have two regional powers, Israel and Iran, with their own independent trade networks and access to resources. Israel will control the resources of the Middle East, and Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz, charging a toll which will feed its economy. They will be helped by Russia and China, because it is in their best interest to develop Iran's infrastructure to facilitate global trade.

The New Rules of Geopolitics

But wait, Iran and Israel are enemies. This is a misunderstanding. Ideologically, they are enemies. But I want to teach you three basic rules of geopolitics.

1. The strong respect each other and prey on the weak. Why would the strong fight each other? It would be easier for them to leave each other alone and go pick on the weak. In this war, you have four players: the GCC, Israel, the United States, and Iran. Right now, it's essentially Israel, the GCC, and the US fighting against Iran. But if Iran proves it is strong and Israel proves it is strong, while the GCC and the US prove they are weak, guess what's going to happen? Israel and Iran are going to get together and say, "Screw these guys. Let's work together." Israel will abandon the GCC and the United States and work with Iran to build a new order in the Middle East because that's the law of the jungle.
2. The weak do not work well together. The GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar) are all weak. You would think if they combined their resources, they could probably beat Israel or Iran. The problem is weak players don't work well together. They're weak because they're stupid.
3. The weak must ally with the strong for protection. Rather than work together, the weak seek to ally with stronger forces. Right now, they're all aligned with the United States and Israel against Iran. But as this war progresses and the US falls, they must choose either Israel or Iran. You might have Qatar and Oman choose to join Iran, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE join Israel. Regardless, the GCC will no longer be a major factor.

According to game theory, this is what the world should look like after the war ends.

How Will Israel Prove It's Stronger Than America?

Israel doesn't have to do anything different. Israel is determined to win this war; that's all it has to do. The United States is not determined to win this war. It doesn't even know what it's doing.

Let's go back to our analysis of the world structure. You need an empire, and you have finance, the game masters, and the global economy. All these players are interested in maintaining the status quo. Eventually, as this war progresses, they're going to recognize that the American Empire is a problem, not a benefit. They will need to replace it, and the only alternative is Israel.

The problem is that empires don't surrender power willingly. So, a situation must be created in which America is forced out of the Middle East. Iran cannot defeat America on the battlefield; America can drag this on for 20 years. We need to force America out. If Iran cannot defeat America on the battlefield, what needs to happen is for America to implode.

You need to cause a collapse in America. And how do you do that? The economy. If you crash the stock market, if you cause oil to go way up, if you cause discontent in America, this will cause a civil war. Then the American military has no choice but to retreat back into America, and Israel will naturally take over. This is the strategy for how to destroy the American Empire and replace it with Israel.