Predictive History

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Predictive History

Great Books #4: The Conscious Universe

The Iliad is a war of wills. The epic starts with the battle between Agamemnon and Achilles. They're trying to impose their will on each other, and it leads to disaster for the Greeks because Hector and the Trojans are now about to destroy them. The Greeks, led

Game Theory #7: America's Game

We have already discussed the British Empire and how it ultimately triumphed over its main rivals—the French, the Spanish, and the Dutch—because of three major powers. 1. The Bank of England: What made the Bank of England so important is that it could absorb foreign capital from all

Game Theory #6: The World's Bank

There is a strange game being played in the world, and it's worth examining the behaviors it produces. Consider three things that, on the surface, don't seem to make any sense. First, many of the best and brightest in developing nations spend an inordinate amount of

Great Books #3: Poets and Prophets

The Iliad is the foundation of Greek civilization, which is the greatest, most creative civilization in human history. It gave us Plato, Thucydides, Herodotus, Aeschylus, Euripides, and Sophocles. Greek civilization is essentially the foundation for Western civilization. The question we will look at is: how is it possible that one

Game Theory #5: The World Game

Today we examine the question: why is it that states, countries, and nations rise and fall? Let's start with an example you know pretty well: the Warring States period. At this point in history, around 250 BCE, there are many powerful states, for example, the Chu, the Zhao,

Game Theory #4: The Immigration Trap

Let's look at the United States, which is where most immigrants go. As you can see from this chart, there are certain ethnic groups that do better than other ethnic groups. Indian people make the most money in America. This makes sense because India has a very competitive

Great Books #2: Homer and the Invention of the Human

We've read the first half of the Iliad, and I recently posed three questions about Achilles to explore the text's power. The first question was to imagine yourself as Achilles. How are you similar? What experience in your life is very similar to that of Achilles?

Game Theory #3: Rich Dad, Poor Dad

Today we look at the question of success: who succeeds and why? We've done a lot of research and discovered that people who succeed do so for certain reasons. The Marshmallow Test: Delayed Gratification and Self-Control There is a Columbia psychologist named Walter Mischel, and he devised

Game Theory #2: Why Schools Suck

We can use game theory to analyze global events, understand why they're happening, and make predictions about how they should develop. To do that, I first need to train your mind on how to see the world using game theory. We previously discussed the dating game and why

Great Books #1: Secrets of the Universe

What is a great book? What I want to show you is that a great book is something that makes you fully human by revealing to you the secrets of the universe and the secrets of what it means to be human. In school, you've been taught that

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