Game Theory #18: Trump World Order

About an hour ago, Donald Trump addressed the American people. This follows addresses from Prime Minister Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Keir Starmer to the British people. In both speeches, Starmer and Albanese said to their people, "We know that fuel prices and gas prices are going up, and we should expect more pain, but we will do as much as we can to ensure that your wallet is not too impacted."

Donald Trump, in his address to the American people, basically said that this war will continue and that America may start to bomb the energy and oil infrastructure of Iran. Let's listen to a few of his words.

Our economy is strong and improving by the day, and it will soon be roaring back like never before. It will top the levels that it was a month ago. I've made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly. Very shortly, we are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.

He's basically saying that we're winning this war and we will bomb them to the stone ages, which tells us he's actually not winning this war.

I also want to look at another person, Pete Hegseth, and his new strategic map. Remember, this war in Iran is not ending. In fact, many people believe it's only starting to ramp up. There are rumors that Donald Trump has already authorized the use of ground forces, so we could see an invasion of Iran as early as this weekend, but certainly this month. But while America is fighting this war in Iran, the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, has announced that America will control all of North America.

from Greenland to the Gulf of America to the Panama Canal and its surrounding countries. At the Department of War, we call this strategic map the Greater North America. Why? Because every sovereign nation and territory north of the equator from Greenland to Ecuador and from Alaska to Guyana is not part of the global south. It is the security perimeter in this great neighborhood that we all live in.

Basically, what he's saying is we will enforce the Monroe Doctrine in North America. This sounds very strange to people: Donald Trump is fighting a war in Iran that's not really winnable while at the same time being aggressive in North America. He's seeking fights with Canada, with Denmark over Greenland, with Colombia, with Mexico, with Cuba. In fact, he's embarrassing Cuba right now, and people expect a possible invasion of Cuba very soon. People just think that Donald Trump is all over the place and he's idiotic.

The Impossibility of an Iranian Invasion

This is Iran, and everyone says that a ground invasion of Iran would be stupid because it is much too large to invade. Right now, America has only about 50,000 troops in the Middle East, and the geography—the terrain—makes it very hard to control.

You have these mountains, the Zagros mountains, which allow for the Iranians to hide and conduct guerrilla warfare and use drone and artillery strikes. Then you have the desert, which makes it very hard to cross. Even if the Americans were to attack from Iraq, they would have to face the mountains. If they were attacked from Pakistan in the east, they would have to face deserts. And if they were to attack from the south, they would face all these mountains and also be far away from Tehran, which is ultimately the objective.

There are lots of conversations about what the Americans are trying to do right now. The consensus seems to be that the Americans first want to control the Strait of Hormuz in order to alleviate the strain on the global economy. But as you can see from this map, the strait is not very wide and it's very close to the Iranian coastline in the mountains, so it's easy to attack from. The Iranians can also put mines all around the strait. What everyone tells us is that an invasion of Iran would just be idiotic. At the same time, the Americans need to free up the Strait and allow for maritime navigation in order to stabilize the global economy.

Already, we're seeing lots of signs that America is preparing for a long, long war. There are already 50,000 troops in the Middle East, and a lot of them will be deployed against Iran. But there's also a letter from Leonard Anderson to reservists telling them, "We must get ready to deploy, fight, and win." So not only have they sent 50,000 troops to the Middle East, but they're preparing to call up the reserves as well. This seems as though America is preparing for total war.

Polymarket is a very interesting place to understand how global events will turn out. There are three indicators that a ground invasion is coming.

1. The pizza index is exploding. This means that in the Pentagon, when they are preparing to launch a ground invasion, they need to work overtime and so they call for pizza. Pizza deliveries are going up.
2. Gay bars are empty. When people don't have much to do, they go on dates.
3. People are making large bets that a ground invasion will happen. These are people who have inside information, so they go on Polymarket and make a bet that this will happen, knowing it will happen. This guy bet $200,000 that a ground invasion will happen, and if it does, he will win over a million dollars.

These are three very good indicators that a ground invasion has been approved and it will happen very, very soon.

Donald Trump himself has said many things. He said that if we leave the Middle East, it's not our problem; we don't really care. He also says, "Hey NATO, it's your responsibility to open the Strait of Hormuz because we told you so and because you need the oil." Of course, NATO is angry at Donald Trump because he previously threatened to take over Greenland. He doesn't plan ahead. Before this war in Iran where he needs the help of NATO, he was pissing off NATO by threatening to take over Greenland. So Donald Trump is all over the place.

Let's just assume the ground invasion goes ahead. What will happen? As I predicted before, if a ground invasion were to go ahead, first of all, America would lose this war because a ground invasion would fail, and the Iranians are fully prepared for it. Second, if America loses the war, the American empire would die. They would be forced out of the Middle East, and they would lose the petrodollar and the US dollar as a global reserve currency. The third thing is the global economy would collapse. Clearly, Donald Trump is the worst president in human history and he's a complete buffoon. Right?

The "Genius" Premise: A Game Theory Approach

But let's put our thinking caps on. Let's use game theory and say, what if, for some strange reason, Donald Trump wants to lose this war in Iran? What if he wants the American empire to collapse? What if Donald Trump wants to destroy the global economy? Then he'd be a genius. He's going to destroy the American empire, but if he actually wants to destroy the American empire, then the man is the greatest American president ever.

We're going to make the argument that in fact, Donald Trump is a genius. That in fact, all this chaos is purposeful. That there's actually a plan behind all this. So what is the plan? What is going on here?

The first thing to notice is that the world gets 20% of its oil from the Middle East, primarily going to East Asia. India gets about 6% of its oil from the Middle East. Japan gets 75% of its oil from the Middle East. So East Asia is heavily dependent on Middle East oil. But it also goes to Europe and to the United States. The world is dependent on GCC oil. If this war continues, if ground forces are used, then all the oil from the Middle East collapses. JP Morgan has come out and said that by mid-April, the world will run out of oil.

This is a disaster for the world, but it's much more than just energy needs. Because Iran is constraining movement in the Strait of Hormuz, we're seeing seven major shortages.

• Oil and LNG are being stopped.
• The problem is much worse because look at phosphate, ammonium, sulfur, and urea. This is food production, primarily used for fertilizers. In other words, if this war persists, not only will countries run out of energy, they'll also run out of food.
• Also, look at this: Helium and sulfur are used for semiconductors. The production of semiconductors uses helium and sulfuric acid, which leads to AI.

In other words, this war in the Middle East is impacting everything in the market economy. If this war continues, the global economy could collapse. But again, we're making the assumption that Donald Trump is a genius and this is all part of his big plan.

The Geopolitical Chessboard: Resources and Dependency

We know that there's a lot of oil in the Middle East. But oil is not as rare as people think it is. There's also a lot of oil in Canada. Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves. Russia also has a lot of oil. In other words, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, if this war in the GCC continues, it doesn't mean the world no longer has oil. All it means is the world is now much more dependent on North America and Russia for oil. The global economy now shifts over to North America and to Russia.

So the United States starts a stupid war in the GCC in the Middle East it can't possibly win, but it still benefits because now the world is much more dependent on North America. Why is Venezuela important? Because America just took over Venezuela in January. And look, Canada has a lot of oil, and Trump is threatening to take over Canada.

Now let's look at who needs the oil.

This map tells you that if you're in the red, you consume more oil than you export. And who are these countries? They're Europe, and they are East Asia, as well as Australia. So yes, I understand Donald Trump is an idiot. Yes, I understand that he's going to lose his war in the Middle East. Yes, I understand he's going to destroy the global economy. But for some strange reason, he benefits, and the United States benefits because now Europe, China, Japan, and Australia are much more dependent on North America for resources, for food, for energy.

Let's look at food. Nitrogen is important for fertilizers.

What this map tells you is that if you are in the blue or the light blue, it means you produce more nitrogen than you need, so you export it. If you are not in a blue color, then you're kind of screwed. This area, especially Europe, now needs more nitrogen. Before, they were getting a lot of nitrogen and ammonia from the Middle East, and now they are forced to get it from North America and Russia. So again, yes, I know Donald Trump's losing this war in the Middle East, but in the long term, America stands to benefit.

The last thing I want to look at is water. Water is important because it tells us which areas are the most stable. Basically, if you have a lot of water, you're less prone to conflict.

If you're in a dark blue, you're good. If you are in the light blue, you are in a lot of trouble. North America is pretty stable because of lots and lots of fresh water. Russia is pretty stable with lots of fresh water. But if you're Africa, you're in a lot of trouble. If you're Europe, you're in a lot of trouble. If you are the Middle East, you're in a lot of trouble. If you are Southeast Asia, you are in some trouble.

This map tells us where the future lies. Basically, Russia and North America are the most stable parts of the world with the most resources, and therefore they are the most resilient. But Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia are points of conflict. We can expect these places to become much more unstable over time. In other words, all the United States and Russia have to do is maintain stability and then export resources to these places. And guess what? They make a lot of money for themselves.

From a long-term game theory perspective, the United States wins from this disaster.

Now you look at this map and think, "Well, China's pretty good, too, right? China has a lot of fresh water." The problem with China, though, is that it sits on a lot of fresh water that Southeast Asia and India depend on. A lot of water is in the Tibetan plateau and it flows downstream into India and Southeast Asia. If there were a drought, using game theory, we can suspect that China might want to keep the water for itself, in which case Southeast Asia and India would be very angry. This is a potential flashpoint that we have to watch out for. It seems like China is stable, but the surrounding areas are not, and so China will be dragged into a conflict.

The Financial Angle: Debt, Dollars, and Dominance

Let's summarize what we've learned so far. These are the countries with the most oil reserves: Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Canada, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, United States, and Russia. This war in the Middle East is going to knock out the oil production of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait. Which leaves what? Venezuela, Canada, and the United States—North America—and Russia.

Now, let's look at who has to buy oil. The United States consumes a lot of oil, but it has its own supply. China needs to import a lot of its oil—about 75% of its needs. India, Japan, and South Korea also import a lot of oil. And where do they get it from? The Middle East. So if they can't get their oil from the Middle East, then these four countries will need to get it from either the United States or Russia.

Why does this matter? Let's look at who owns the most US treasuries.

If you own a lot of US treasuries, it means that you are financing American debt. America right now is $39 trillion in debt. That's a lot of money, but as long as people continue to buy US debt, as long as people want to buy US treasuries, it's not a problem. It's a Ponzi scheme.

Who are the biggest holders of US debt? Japan and China. Also Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and India. This is all Asia, and we already said that Asia needs a lot of oil from the Middle East. Now let's look at others: the United Kingdom, Cayman Islands (which is basically just Europe), Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Canada, Ireland, and Switzerland. These countries are in Europe.

And where did we say most oil from the GCC goes? To either East Asia or Europe. Now, because of the stupid war in the Middle East, Asia and Europe are forced to buy oil from either Russia or the United States. This is important because previously, there was a fear that these countries would stop buying US treasuries because America is too heavily in debt. The American economy is too much of a Ponzi scheme. There was this great fear that Europe and Asia would move away from the US dollar and more towards Swiss Francs or gold.

Now, because Europe and Asia need fertilizer and energy from the United States, America no longer has to worry about its debt. The $39 trillion debt is not a problem because the entire world is dependent on North America for resources. The Ponzi scheme can keep on going. So again, Donald Trump is an idiot, but he's so stupid, he's become a genius.

The Russian Precedent: Putin's "Third Rome"

You might be thinking, "Wait, but Donald Trump's an idiot. Where would he get this idea from?" The answer is because Putin has already proven that the strategy works in Ukraine.

This is the war in Ukraine. As you can see, Russia still has a long way to go, and we're already four or five years into this war, which means it can go on for another 10 or 20 years. It's a very slow grind, and it's good for Russia. Yes, I know that Russia is losing a lot of soldiers and the Russian economy is suffering, but this long war of attrition is good for Russia. Why?

First of all, it allows Russia to industrialize its economy. It allows Russia to center its economy around war production.

As you can see, total industry has been going up since the war started. Unfortunately, industries that are not dominated by the military and have no war purpose are actually going down. It seems as though the entire Russian economy is being restructured for a long, total war, and that is the goal.

The pink line represents military industries, and the blue represents civilian industries. The pink completely dominates the blue, and the trend is increasing, meaning it is possible that in four or five years, Russia will be primarily a war economy, industrializing to produce weapons and munitions, specifically drones.

At the beginning of the war, Russia was dependent on Iran for drones. But over time, Russia started to have its own domestic production. Imports from Iran have stayed constant, while domestic production has gone way up. This tells us that the Russian economy is industrializing for the production of drones, and Russia is preparing to fight a long, long war. Not only can Russia produce its own drones for the war, but it can also export its drones to Iran to fight against the Americans.

So Russia is switching its entire economy to war production, which means that Russia will always fight wars. Is that what Russia is planning? The answer is yes. This is something called the Third Rome plan. This comes from the 1996 book, Foundations of Geopolitics, by Aleksandr Dugin, who I think is one of the smartest geopolitical thinkers alive today.

His argument is this: this unipolar moment of American dominance is going to fade away because it's too focused on secularism, individualism, and liberalism. These ideas break apart community; they are anti-human. So eventually, Western civilization will collapse because its values are abhorrent. When it collapses, this gives an opportunity for Moscow to become the Third Rome.

What's brilliant about Dugin is he recognizes that when the world collapses, all Russia has to do is stay stable and resilient. As long as it stays together, unified, and cohesive, it'll be fine. As this global order collapses, every other society will face internal collapse, such as the United States. He predicts civil war in the United States as left and right go to war against each other. He predicts the collapse of China, the Middle East, and Europe. Basically, if you are a main pillar of the global economy, you are much more susceptible to collapse than if you are not.

Dugin's strategy is that Russia needs to stay coherent. It needs to defend its territory and unify its people through nationalism, religion, and faith. Then, Russia needs to find allies that would support the Russian outlook, including Japan, Vietnam, India, and Iran. By combining their forces, they become a trading bloc unto themselves. This is an age of nuclear weapons, so you don't want to go to war against each other, but this is also an age of collapse. As long as you're able to stay coherent and defend your borders, you'll come out ahead.

The idea is to use war to unify the imagination and beliefs of the people in your nation. Using war to increase nationalism and religion in your society will allow you to weather the storm better. That is the grand vision of Dugin, and in my opinion, he is absolutely correct. Russia is moving towards this by invading Ukraine. The Ukraine invasion was not a response to NATO; it was to implement this grand vision for the creation of the Third Rome, to allow Russia to survive the coming collapse of the global order better than anyone else.

By taking over Ukraine, you now control one-third of the world's carbohydrates and a lot of the world's energy. Once you control Ukraine and the Black Sea, you're able to export your energy and food to Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. That's the grand vision for Russia. The world is collapsing, so you have to build a fortress and be self-sufficient in order to weather the storm.

America's Counter-Plan: The Technate

Given this, America is like, "Well, we can do the same thing." The grand plan for America is something called the Technate. The idea is very simple: yes, the world is going into chaos and collapsing, but North America is self-sufficient.

These past few months, Donald Trump has been picking a fight with Denmark over Greenland. He's been threatening Canada, Mexico, and Colombia. He's taking over Venezuela. He's been threatening Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Why is he doing this? Because they're all part of the grand vision for Greater North America—the Technate. This is a response to Moscow's Third Rome. If Moscow is going to build this grand alliance to weather the storm, America has no choice but to also build its own grand alliance to protect itself.

What Donald Trump has recognized is that Putin is right. The world is collapsing. There's nothing we can do to save it, so let's just accelerate it in a way that allows America to benefit from this collapse. By collapsing the GCC and the Middle East, you make Asia and Europe dependent on North American energy and fertilizer exports. This gives you the resources and motivation to create the Technate, this self-sufficient economy.

The Old vs. The New World Order

On September 11th, 1991, George H.W. Bush responded to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union with a new phrase: the New World Order. There were three major pillars to this idea:

1. Financialization: America will become the financial capital of the world. We will offshore resources and manufacturing to other places, and America will focus primarily on finance, making Wall Street the center of the world.
2. Secular Multiculturalism: The world is divided, but what can unite everyone is the love of money and consumerism. If we just focus on making money and buying things, the world will be forever at peace. We have to let go of borders, community, and identity and focus more on consumerism.
3. Global Domination (Pax Americana): In order for global trade to happen, America will provide security for all. No one has to fight anymore because America will guarantee global peace. If anyone rises to challenge this order, America will go destroy it.

The Trump World Order is a response to this. What Trump has been saying for a long time is: Why should America pay for the defense of other nations? Why should America have to be the consumer of last resort for everyone? Why are Americans paying for everything so that Europeans can have their welfare and their pensions? Everyone's taking advantage of America, and it's destroying America. So let us change the new order to the Trump World Order.

How do you do that?

• You move America from a focus on finance to a focus on resources and manufacturing. You believe the world is going into permanent war, so you provide the resources and manufacturing to facilitate this world war. Meanwhile, America becomes Fortress America, protected by two oceans.
• Multiculturalism doesn't work. It leads to stupidity such as DEI, woke politics, and transgenderism. Let's focus on what makes us proud to be Americans, which is Christian nationalism: our love of the white race, our nation, and God. No more multiculturalism, no more immigration, no more open borders, no more Democratic party. Let's just focus on being Christian nationalists.
• Why should America pay to protect the world? Screw Pax Americana. Let's just do MAGA (Make America Great Again). MAGA is national rejuvenation. Let's make America great again by rebuilding America's manufacturing industry and by exploiting the infinite resources that God has given America in order to make sure every American has a decent life.

Again, I understand Trump is an idiot. Trump has launched America into this stupid war in the Middle East. Trump has pissed off NATO and all of America's allies. But if the goal was to destroy the American empire, destroy the global economy, and rebuild America for the benefit of Americans, then Trump is a genius. And he may go down in history as America's greatest president.

Why is the Collapse of the Global Economy Considered Inevitable?

Both Putin and Trump know that the world will collapse. The question is, how do they know this? The answer is because it's so obvious.

For the longest time, after World War II, America lent money to Europe and Japan so that they could buy manufactured goods from America. This was good for America because it created a lot of jobs and Americans were productive. But then over time, Americans became very lazy, and they made the Europeans and the Japanese do the work, specifically Germany. America started to be the consumer, spending more money than it made.

Then, America started to shift its manufacturing to China. China said, "Let me do all the work for you, America. I'll do it really cheaply, and I'll lend you the money to do it." What's happening is that America is becoming lazy, in debt, and corrupt because the entire world was basically working for America for very little money. This led to massive inequality in America, which led to political corruption and an oligarchy. Don't think of America as a democracy; think of it as an oligarchy.

When that happens, when only a few people benefit from the system, the American people get really pissed. And so they elected Donald Trump. Why did Donald Trump get elected? Because he understood intuitively that this system does not work. It cannot hold; it cannot be stable for too long. It's going to collapse eventually.

The question then is, when will it collapse, and who will benefit from the collapse? Donald Trump's thinking is, "Okay, then let's control the collapse so that my friends and I can benefit the most from it." Donald Trump has two sets of friends: the Christian evangelicals—the fanatics who support Israel—as well as the AI and Silicon Valley crowd.

As a society declines, the elites start to compete against themselves for resources. Right now, the elite are the finance people, and the new counter-elites are the AI people. The idea is that America is a house of cards. It's a Ponzi scheme, it's corrupt, it's unequal, it's lazy, it's in decline. So it's going to fall apart sooner or later. The question then is, how do you manage this decline? How do you control this decline in a way that allows you and your friends to benefit the most?

That's why Donald Trump started this war in the Middle East. By starting this war, you're accelerating the process of decline in America. And therefore, you're able to help transform America from an economy that's based on finance to one that's based on resource exportation and then manufacturing.

How Does This Geopolitical Explanation Connect to Religious Prophecy?

The thing to understand about war is that there are different factors at play. Before, we went into the eschatological factor. Now, I've explained the geopolitical or economic factor. But there's also the historical factor, or hubris. What you need to recognize about history is that often all three things converge.

What is religion? Religion is a memory, a long-lost memory of our ancient past told through myths and stories. So there's truth to religion because it's basing a lot of its ideas on personal experience, on history from thousands of years ago. And geopolitics and economics drive historical forces. In other words, often all these different factors are aligned together.

Why do I look at different factors, different vectors? The answer is because I make predictions. And if I'm able to analyze an event using eschatology, geopolitics, and history, and they align, then I can make a pretty accurate prediction that this event will happen. I don't know when it will happen, and I don't know who all the players are, but I'm pretty sure this event will happen.