Game Theory #20: Mid-Term Examination

Today is our midterm examination—a chance for you to question and examine me. Before we look at the questions, I want to briefly discuss the ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

Yesterday, Donald Trump announced that there will be a two-week pause to this war and that the United States and Iran will meet in Pakistan to negotiate a possible long-term ceasefire. What he said that's very important is that he will use the 10-point Iranian plan as a framework to discuss a peace treaty. As you can see from the 10-point plan, this is almost a complete US surrender to Iran.

The plan includes the following points:

• The United States will guarantee never to attack Iran again.
• Iran will have complete control over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran can choose to enrich uranium for its nuclear program.
• All sanctions on Iran will be removed. This is a very big deal.
• Removal of all secondary sanctions against foreign entities that do business with Iran.
• Removal of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran.
• Removal of all International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions.
• Compensation and reparations for all the damage that the United States and Israel did to Iran.
• Withdrawal of US combat forces from the Middle East, giving Iran control over the region.
• Last and most important, the United States will also agree to end hostilities against all of Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.

As you can see, this is basically a complete US surrender to Iran, which tells us right away that Donald Trump is not serious. If you go into a shop to negotiate with the owner and you want to sell a book, you might be hoping for $100. But because it's a negotiation, you think, "Maybe I should start high," so you say $1,000. If the shop owner immediately says, "Yeah, I'll take that deal," there's something wrong. There's something very wrong.

There's very little chance that this ceasefire will hold. In fact, we're already seeing news that it is being broken. Three individuals on Twitter have made some very interesting points.

First, Mr. Bojac asked: if this is really a ceasefire, why is the United States continuing to send aircraft carriers like the USS George Bush to the Middle East? What they're really trying to do is buy time for ground troops to get ready to attack and seize the strait. Once everything is in position, what will probably happen is that Israel will launch a false flag attack against the Americans, which will justify an American attack against Iran. So, if Donald Trump is really intent on peace, why does he continue to send US forces to the Middle East?

Second is the problem of how Iran is defending itself. It's using something called the Mosaic defense, which means its 31 provinces are 31 cells or units, each responsible for its own strategy, attack, and defense. There's no longer a centralized command. It doesn't matter if you negotiate with the leadership of Iran because the IRGC—the people who are fighting—will not agree to a ceasefire because they do not trust the Americans or the Israelis. Whatever happens in Pakistan will not affect the outcome on the battlefield.

Think of the Mosaic defense as a dead man's switch. If you kill the Ayatollah, he will have already told his people to fight to the end. The Mosaic defense will only end if either Iran is defeated or the Americans are defeated. A ceasefire in between causes the system to collapse because for the Iranians to implement it, they would have to go and control these Mosaic units in the provinces, which basically means a civil war. It's almost impossible, even if Iran were to negotiate a favorable peace deal, for it to actually implement this deal within its military.

Third, the United States continues to have an airbridge to the Middle East. Even though there's a ceasefire, you have this massive movement of US ground troops, planes, artillery, and tanks to the region. If there's really peace, why is this happening? Another way of saying this is that the political systems of both the United States and Iran have lost control over the war. Once these militaries start fighting, they are determined to fight to the bitter end.

The fact that Iran is willing to negotiate a peace treaty probably means that there's a schism or divide between the political and military leadership in Iran. This is going to cause a lot of problems in the future. Before this past month, it seemed as though Iran had control over the battlefield and was winning. But I think over time, fissures will arise in Iran, and it will start losing the battle more and more as the United States and Israel develop a much more coherent strategy.

Another major issue is that as this war drags on, the world economy is going to suffer. People may no longer be able to drive their cars, and many may starve. This means that ultimately, global public opinion will slowly turn against Iran. Even Iran's closest allies, Russia and China, will feel the strain of this war and may even pressure Iran to end it. But again, because of the way Iran has structured its military defense, it is impossible for it to end this war unless it's either destroyed or it destroys the Americans. This ceasefire is only a PR stunt; it will lead to nothing.

The major point of contention is whether or not Lebanon is part of the peace treaty. The Iranians believe this peace treaty also includes its proxies, specifically Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. But after this peace treaty was announced, Israel launched more than 100 strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon, killing at least 250 people.

Iran is morally obligated to defend Hezbollah. Israel understands that if Iran breaks the peace treaty to defend Hezbollah, then it is Iran's fault. The Americans have come out and said that Lebanon was not part of the deal. Vice President JD Vance called it a "legitimate misunderstanding," saying, "We thought that Hezbollah wasn't part of this deal, but the Iranians thought it was." This tells you that the Americans and Israelis are not serious about maintaining the ceasefire. They've already found a loophole.

Midterm Examination: Answering Your Questions

A Twitter account, RS App, analyzed all 8,000-plus questions submitted and broke them down into major categories. I will look at these questions first and then answer them.

How can the US empire be declining if it could also benefit from this war?

Is that really a contradiction? The United States is extremely powerful. It's really a question of who benefits from these changes. Even though the US empire will lose control over the Middle East, the American nation can still exert control over Mexico and Canada.

What is the role of eschatology and secret societies in shaping global events?

History moves in a certain direction. It's very complicated and messy, but there is a structure and a pattern to its movement. Think of a river. When you see a river current, you might think it's just chaos. But if you're able to read the river well, you know how it is moving. You can position your canoe or kayak in a way that allows you to seamlessly and smoothly cross it.

There are certain individuals we can call occultists who try to read the river or historical patterns. They create something called an eschatology. When you try to read the stars and find meaning, we call this astrology. When you try to read human history and find a pattern, we can call this eschatology. The thing about eschatology is that it's a story, and you want the story to work out. So it's both a prophecy and a plan. You think it's going to happen, but you also think you are obligated to make it happen. The occultists, who are often religious people, try to turn the chaotic movement of history into a story that comes to an end and in which you can participate.

This process works as follows:

1. Occultists form secret societies to understand and promote this eschatology.
2. Powerful people—the rich and powerful—join these societies. They want to know how history moves to better position themselves to protect their power and wealth. That's why very famous people often have astrologers, and it's why the rich and powerful join secret societies. They want access to secrets that tell them how to make better investments and have more political power. Secret societies also enable them to create networks to maintain their power.
3. To propel this eschatology forward, you need people to actually move towards the ending. These people can be called agents, and they include figures like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

This is how the world works. The occultists are the ones who imagine the world, the rich and powerful are the ones who act it out to better themselves, and then they appoint certain agents who are like puppets to move the world in a certain direction. These agents are like vectors.

However, there are certain problems with this system:

• There are different societies, and they fight amongst themselves to achieve different eschatologies.
• The rich and powerful will often switch secret societies and loyalties to maximize their benefit. They don't have any loyalties.
• These agents, like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, may seem like puppets, but they themselves believe they are using these secret societies to achieve their own vision, which is given to them by God.

It's a very complicated system, which is why no one thinks it's all a grand conspiracy. Each person is doing his or her own part subconsciously to maximize his or her benefit. It's not a top-down system; it's a much more dynamic, fluid game than people assume. This is a map that helps us understand how the world works. This is why I'm able to figure out what's happening in the Middle East—if you're able to focus on the story, you basically know where people are going, even though you may not be aware of what the different secret societies are doing or how the different agents are thinking. As long as you can figure out how the occultists are thinking and the story they want to tell the world, you can basically figure out the general direction of the world in the long term.

What is China and what is it going to do?

Let's go back to our theory of how the world is structured.

• You have the Empire.
• From the empire, you have the Game Masters (the people in finance).
• They create the Global Economy.
• This creates the Rules-Based International Order.
• Then you have the Education System, Media, and Culture to indoctrinate people to believe the system is fair and natural.
• Finally, you have Parasitic Organizations (science, crime, intelligence) to control the system but also to extract value from it.

The beauty of this system is that it is capable of extending and replicating itself in other societies. The two key examples are the GCC and China.

China is not a civilization. China is not a nation-state. China is a construct of empire.

The system has basically taken all its elements and embedded them into China to create a vassal state, or you could say, a mirage. Think of the GCC. Before the empire, the GCC was just a desert. The system took the GCC and turned it into this seemingly vibrant, cosmopolitan, wealthy center. They brought in universities like Georgetown and NYU; they brought in culture; they brought in the media ecosystem. This system replicated itself in the GCC as well as in China.

This is important because the moment this system is under strain—for example, when Iran attacks it—we see it's all just a mirage. This system is not sustainable. It collapses onto itself because it doesn't have a civilization; it doesn't have an existing soul. It's all just appearance. I believe China is in a very similar situation. That's why China was allowed to join the WTO and why so many Chinese students go overseas to be educated—to create this mirage that China is a modern, flourishing economy.

Rather than believe that China is a competitor to the system, we need to appreciate that China is really an extension of the system. If this system comes under strain, China itself comes under strain. That's why China is so desperate and anxious to see peace in the Middle East again. There are rumors and news reports that China has exerted pressure on Iran to negotiate a ceasefire because if the global economy collapses, China is in a lot of trouble.

What are the long-term implications of the Hollywood-Pentagon complex?

If you go back to the system, no one actually knows what's going on, but they believe they know what's going on, and they believe their individual parts of the story. If you're in culture, you think you're the one in control and dictating policy. If you're in the media, you think you're in control. If you're in education, you think you're in control. Everyone basically lives in his own bubble, in his own fantasy world, without being able to see the bigger picture. That's why we don't have control, agency, and free will over how the system will turn out. We cannot, because it's actually very difficult for us to really appreciate how the system works. It's much easier for us to believe in our fantasies because it allows us to work with our friends and colleagues much more easily. It's much easier for people to live in their own bubble and be delusional than it is for them to be objective.

The Hollywood-Pentagon complex is not unique to America; it is true for everyone.

How do emerging powers like China factor into the predicted shifts in the global order?

I already told you that all these things you believe are alternatives—including digital currency, renewables, and China—are all just projections and extensions of the system. If the system is under strain, these are under strain as well.

What strategies can individuals employ to navigate potential global economic collapse and resource scarcity?

Individuals by themselves cannot navigate change. Individuals need to enter into communities. If you really want to survive the change, first of all, you need to educate yourself as to what's going on. But you also need to make a commitment to reach out to other people, become their friends, be generous and open with them, share with them, and build a community.

Also, one thing I would recommend is maybe starting a family. You might think, "Wait a minute, this is silly because you have said for the longest time the world is collapsing. This is the end of the world. Why would you have children?" The answer is because, first of all, death doesn't matter. Destruction doesn't really matter. What matters is our ability in this world to live a creative, purposeful, significant life. That's why we're here. It's not to make a million dollars or to eat a lot of food; it's to have the best experience possible to extend the imagination of the universe.

What I found having children—I have three kids—is that I live every day with tremendous energy and purpose because I'm here not to become famous or to make a lot of money. I'm here to make sure that my kids are happy and healthy, and that's why I get up in the morning and work very hard. I don't really care about the world. All I care about is whether my kids are happy and healthy. Children and family give you an energy, a purpose, and a meaning that drives you to greater creative heights.

What are the primary drivers behind specific geopolitical actions?

Again, this is a really important theory to understand: the occultists are the main drivers. Why? Because the occultists, whether they be poets or prophets, are the ones who imagine the world we live in. Others can only work within the boundaries of this imagination. So yes, the rich and the powerful have all the money and all the wealth, but they don't have an imagination. Ultimately, your actions have to be driven by your thoughts. And it's these occultists who drive your thoughts, who control your thoughts. We just live in the world imagined by occultists.

You make predictions without time frames. How do you differentiate between causation and correlation?

This is a great question and something that I think a lot about. I make these predictions to validate my prediction model, but just because these predictions turn out to be correct does not validate my model 100%. That's why it's important to keep an open mind and to continue to make predictions.

When I first started making predictions two years ago, I was just looking at patterns and trying to figure out which were the most salient or obvious. I made those predictions and was fairly confident about them. Now that I'm famous and people are demanding I make predictions every day, it's hard for me to make accurate ones because I don't have access to all the information, and it's hard for me to think clearly and objectively because I know that whatever I say will have an impact on global events. This is a major constraint on my capacity to make accurate predictions. I am no longer an observer; I'm a player. I also get a lot of influence from other people who want to control my predictions. I understand that, so I try to keep away from people as much as possible, but it's an impossible thing.

I appreciate this question. Yes, correlation and causation are two different things altogether. It's possible that we'll never really understand causation. The other thing I want to emphasize is that I myself appreciate the limitations of my own objectivity because of my status today.

Aren't Trump and every politician just puppets of secret societies?

This is a great question. Yes, they are agents. They can only be agents, but at the same time, agents have agency. The agents have free will. Think of Napoleon and Julius Caesar, who were obviously supported by secret societies but reached a certain point where they could betray the secret society or veer off in a different direction. Hitler and Stalin are other examples. Every great person in history—most of them—are supported by secret societies, but they also reach a point where they feel they have a higher calling and it is God that they must be loyal to. So they betray their secret society. I think something similar will happen with both Trump and Vladimir Putin.

You mention the Third Rome, the American Technate, and Pax Judaica. How can three different empires coexist?

The reality is that this unipolar moment where America controls everything is unique in human history. It's not sustainable and it will not last. The idea of competing empires is much more common. So yes, you'll have the Technate, where America retreats into greater North America. Russia will exert control over its territory. And Israel will try to build a Pax Judaica in the Middle East. They will be in competition with each other. There will be some areas in which they cooperate and some areas in which they compete. We are moving towards a multipolar world, and we don't actually even know how long this multipolar world will sustain itself—maybe 10 years, maybe 20.

Why would the world be dependent on American fertilizers and energy when other parts of the world have them as well?

The answer is trade access. What America can do that other nations cannot is retreat into its continental fortress and control sea trade. Right now, the easiest way to trade is through the sea, and unfortunately for the world, America controls the seas with its navies. America can allow its ships to go anywhere in the world and block Chinese, Iranian, and Russian ships from accessing the rest of the world.

A counter to this is that you don't have to go by sea. If you were to unite Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, you could just use railways, and that's what China wants to do with its Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is Iran. That's why America is so invested in destroying Iran, because Iran is really the pivot of the world. If you can destroy Iran, it'll be very hard for China to access the Belt and Road and hard for Russia to trade with Africa.

I would challenge your assessment of why Russia attacked Ukraine. Russia was not prepared for a long war and it adapted.

The general explanation is that NATO provoked Russia into an attack. That's true to a certain extent, but we have to remember that if you commit to any war, you need to have a long-term strategy because you need so many different organizations, institutions, and parties involved. A war means a fundamental restructuring of society, and therefore you need a grand strategy. You need an eschatology, because this is what allows for political will.

That's the issue the Americans are facing in Iran, where they don't really have an eschatology or grand strategy that's articulated to the American people. That's why America doesn't really have the political will to sustain this war. There's this misconception that people like Putin and Trump just have these emotions, like, "I want to go attack," so they go attack. That's not how these things work. You need a lot of people to agree to attack Ukraine or Iran before these things happen. The idea that one man can control an entire country is just a myth. A country is controlled by different vested interests and institutions. These institutions have to align for something to happen. Otherwise, they'll just sit back and do nothing.

That's the situation Iran faced in the lead-up to this war. Everyone was saying, "The Americans and Israelis are going to attack you, so take the initiative. Why are you still sitting around doing nothing?" The answer is because different factions and institutions could not align on how to respond, so they just sat back and waited to be attacked.

Why don't Asian and Middle Eastern nations unite to prevent American interference?

Another misconception is that the nation-state is real. It is not real; it's just a made-up concept. The idea of China, America, Russia, or Iran—they're all made-up concepts. They don't exist. What these nation-states are is a collection of elite interests, and this means the people don't matter. The people are a resource exploited by the elite. What matters is the elite.

The question then is: where are the elite's allegiances and loyalties? The fact of the matter is that in East Asia and the Middle East, much of the elite have their families and wealth stored in the Western world. They're not loyal to the people; they are never loyal to the people. They're loyal to themselves, their families, and their social network. Because all of their wealth and family is located overseas, they're loyal to overseas. These elites in Asia and the Middle East are basically carpetbaggers. That's why nations with very close relationships with the Western world, like the GCC, are much more likely to fall and collapse. They are very unstable countries. In contrast, countries like Iran that have been isolated and ostracized by the West are much more cohesive.

Can the Strait of Hormuz be avoided by laying gas pipelines through Oman?

No, that's not how these things work. What Iran is doing is using the Strait of Hormuz to blockade and disrupt the global economy. The Strait is the most convenient and least controversial way of doing so. But if forced, Iran can also destroy any energy production in the GCC. It can destroy the pipelines. If a drone can attack a city, it can attack a pipeline as well. These pipelines are extremely vulnerable. Just yesterday, the Iranians reportedly attacked a pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Think about all this gas and oil—it's all combustible. A drone can just blow it up.

The point is not the Strait of Hormuz. The point is the vulnerability and fragility of the global economy, which is completely dependent on cheap access to energy. That's where the problem lies.

Is Donald Trump's erratic behavior a calculated strategy or a lack of understanding?

This goes back to our understanding of how the world works. You have the eschatology, then the secret societies, then the agents. Trump is an agent. What makes him a very powerful agent is his unpredictability. Today he's like, "I'm gonna nuke Iran." Tomorrow he's like, "Let's have peace in the world, guys." He's just unpredictable. It's all a show.

There are three reasons why unpredictability is so powerful:

1. It's paralyzing. You don't know how to respond to him. How do you fight a guy who changes his opinion every single day? It paralyzes you into inaction.
2. It's distracting. All your attention is focused on his antics, and you don't realize that things are happening behind the scenes. You don't notice the backstage because you're just focused on Trump being a clown on stage.
3. It allows for flexibility. He is not beholden to any strategy and can change his strategy at any time.

Yes, we think he's a clown, and he is a clown, but there's a method to his madness. It paralyzes and distracts his enemies, and he's able to maintain maximum flexibility. That's why he's so successful. The people around him just do whatever he tells them to and tell him exactly what he wants to hear. It's actually Donald Trump making all the decisions.

His ultimate purpose is to get his third term. From his perspective, if he actually wants to implement his vision for America—the Technate, where America becomes a fortress, abandons the world, and just trades with it—he needs a third term. This war in Iran is the best strategy because if it continues and goes badly for America, Trump can declare martial law and have a lot of power. His enemies are too distracted to appreciate that this is strategic and are paralyzed into inaction. The Democratic Party, which should be opposing Trump and this war, is just sitting back and doing nothing, hoping that in the midterms, Trump's party gets wiped out and they get into power, and then the world is perfect again. The Democrats actually don't have a strategy for this.

If the petrodollar, AI, and treasury bonds collapse, won't the US suffer a catastrophe?

A nation-state is a collection of different interests, and these interests are competing against each other. You have different interest groups: AI, finance, and resources. What matters is the general direction of the country. If the economy were to collapse, the main losers would be finance and AI. But then what America can do, because it's so wealthy and its people are so energetic, is just focus on building up resources—oil, food, water, fertilizer—and sell it to the world. Then the economy rebounds.

This is actually a restructuring. The purpose is not to destroy America; the purpose is to move power away from one elite to another. This is basically a revolution in America. AI can actually be saved with a government bailout, and that's what I imagine will happen. The AI and finance bubbles will burst. Finance will be allowed to collapse. AI will be bailed out because Trump is very close with AI overlords like Peter Thiel and Sam Altman. Then, resource manufacturing will become the dominant center of gravity in the American economy. That's the plan. I'm not saying this will happen exactly like this, but that's what they intend to happen.

Transnational capital is a game master. Won't it just take its money elsewhere if the empire collapses?

In my analysis, I use abstract terms that are useful for simplicity and clarity. You're right that transnational capital also has competing interests, and just because the empire collapses doesn't mean all the money goes to Israel. This money will spread out, and that's true.

But the point I'm trying to make is that most of the money will go to Israel. Why? Because Israel provides the best short-term investment opportunities if you're a trillionaire. Yes, capital will allocate its resources and put its eggs in different baskets, but ultimately you have to ask yourself: where is the best investment opportunity? In the short term, it's going to be the Middle East. That's why over time, more capital will shift towards Israel.

How do we combat the "war against truth" and overcome our biases?

There are a few things I do that I think are very important:

• Doubt. You always want to question yourself. You always want to ask yourself, "Am I correct?" That's why making predictions is important—it's actually about creating doubt in yourself. If the predictions are wrong, it's a mechanism for you to self-reflect and appreciate the limitations of your model.
• Debate. You engage with people who think differently than you do. I do that by watching a lot of YouTube videos from people of different political leanings and viewpoints because I'm interested in hearing their perspective. Keep an open mind and have an honest debate with them as well as yourself.
• Imagination. This is something I do that most people don't. I will go places and make certain assumptions that other people don't. That's why I think people find me so interesting—because I will say things that are imaginative and speculative but which are not backed up by any evidence. Don't be afraid to do that. If you want to seek the truth, you have to make some imaginative leaps into the unknown. The truth is not in front of you; it's often behind you or far away. You can't be afraid to just leap far into the unknown.

Asia and Australia are suffering the most from this conflict. Why are these nations so passive?

A lot of this is based on the misconception that nation-states are the constituent players in this game and that they are all equal. They're not. There are only certain nation-states that have the capacity to project force overseas: Russia, America, and maybe some European countries. Australia, Asia, and most European countries are just vassal states. They are not capable of playing this game; they are only capable of obeying.

Maybe over time they will change their attitude and develop the capacity to play, but you have to remember that like the GCC, a lot of these European countries—Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines—are all co-opted by the CIA. These are all American vassal states, and so they're not capable of acting independently of American policy. There's the illusion that they are independent, but they're not. You can tell by their actions. You're absolutely right that if you're Australia and you don't have any more jet fuel, you should send your army or negotiate with the Americans or Iranians. But they're not doing that. Japan is in fact negotiating with Iran, but Japan is still a vassal state of America. Pakistan is the mediator for these ceasefire talks, but guess what? Pakistan is also just another vassal state. They pretend not to be, but by their actions, you know that they are.

If a civil war breaks out in the US, who is going to win?

If you look at the history of the Roman Republic, once a civil war starts, it almost never ends. That's just the nature of American society, where the country is so vast and people are so energetic and ambitious that once a civil war starts, it's very unlikely that it will ever stop. Maybe the intensity will shift over time, but you will have civil war for the next few hundred years.

The question then is, who triumphs? If you just use our game theory formula of cohesion, energy, and openness, and you ask yourself which state has all three, the answer is Texas. If you just look at the 50 states, Texas is the most dynamic, energetic, and open-minded. California and New York are going to suffer a great deal in a civil war. Texas will emerge as a clear winner.

With Texas, you also have Christian nationalists and AI. Why Christian nationalists? Because Christian nationalism is actually a coherent philosophy. It has a direction, a strategy, and a purpose. AI will win out because it can provide the technological support to Christian nationalists. So if you live in Texas, work in AI, and you're a Christian nationalist, you're going to be a big winner. If you're the opposite—living in New York or California, you're an atheist, and you work in the arts—you're going to be a clear loser. The professional managerial elite living on the coasts—these guys are done. They are completely useless, cost too much money, and contribute nothing to society.

How does an individual survive what's coming?

Family and community. Forget the fact that you are an individual. Leave that behind. You will not survive as an individual. I don't care how much money you have or how prepared you are. You might have a bunker; I don't care. You have to focus on family and community if you are to survive the new world.

Should Iran have nuclear weapons?

No. The worst thing Iran can do at this point is develop a nuclear weapon. Iran can at most have 10 nuclear weapons; America has thousands. There's one way for Iran to lose this war really quickly, and it's to threaten America with a nuclear weapon because that gives America justification to use its nuclear arsenal.

The other, more important problem is the idea of complacency. If you have nuclear weapons, you think, "I'm safe. I don't have to worry about anything." No. It's much better to be creative, resilient, and open-minded. If you don't have nuclear weapons, you're always under threat, and that forces your people and your society to constantly think about how to be strategic. Nuclear weapons are a bad thing, not a good thing.

Why would Saudi Arabia allow Pax Judaica to happen?

For Saudi Arabia, what matters first is defeating Iran. Their strategy is: I defeat Iran, then I become master of the Muslim world. Then I can unite all two billion Muslims behind me to defeat Israel. From the perspective of the GCC and Saudi Arabia, Iran is a much bigger threat than Israel.

Why hasn't the GCC done anything about what has happened in Palestine and Lebanon?

The GCC are vassal states of America. It's not hard. These are all run by the CIA.

If Trump is a genius, why did he authorize the insane and stupid mission to steal Iranian uranium?

Trump is a genius at politics. He's a genius at screwing over his enemies and accumulating power for himself. He is not a military genius. He's a genius at controlling his base and being a TV star. He's not a genius at geopolitics. These things don't have to be the same.

How can Israel sustain a global empire when their religious leaders view the physical destruction of their own cities as a spiritual victory?

It's not that hard to rebuild an economy and a city. What is hard is to develop the spiritual cohesion of a people to make them believe in something so that they're willing to die for it. That's what matters. Destroying a city? You can rebuild it in five years. Just hire the Chinese to do it.

Why would religious fanatics respect nuclear taboos?

They don't care about nukes. They think this world is fake. But the problem is that there are institutional constraints and restraints on the use of nuclear weapons. There's this myth that Donald Trump can just press one button and all the nukes will go flying. That's not how it works. There are lots of subtle constraints on the president. He has to get the nuclear football, then someone has to open it for him, and then he can press a button. But if people think Donald Trump is crazy, I guarantee you that the nuclear football guy is going to run away. There are so many taboos against the use of nuclear weapons. I keep saying this, but if nuclear weapons are used in this war, we are completely screwed. I don't think they will be used.

Why is conforming to the rules and working hard considered "playing the game wrong"?

If the game is fair, you want to conform to the rules and work hard. But if there's an elite that is parasitic and rent-seeking, then by working hard, you're just transferring your energy to the elite. Maybe 20 years ago, America was a place that was very fair, and if you just worked hard and played by the rules, you would succeed. This is no longer true. It's basically an oligarchy where a few people control all the power.

As Iranians grow less religious, will the war energize them to become more cohesive under a Shia framework?

Yes. One outcome of this war that we should expect is that Iranian society becomes much more religious and fanatical. One reason is that the Americans are intent on destroying Iranian urban centers like Tehran. The Americans and Israelis are bombing railway networks that connect Tehran to the countryside, so Tehran might not have access to food, in which case it might disappear as a city. When people are in desperate need, they turn to religion for comfort and an eschatological drive. We can expect Iran to become much more eschatological as this war continues.

If the US implements a draft and Generation Z refuses, where will the military get its soldiers?

That's a good question. The answer is illegal immigrants. There are about 28 million illegal immigrants in America. They can be arrested and conscripted. That's a solution to this problem because, as the question points out, young people are not going to fight in this war because it's suicidal.

Can't the US just make cheaper drones to counter Iran's cheap drones?

We have become too obsessed with technology. We think that technology can solve all problems. What people don't appreciate is that technology is built on people. Technology is meant to complement people, to enhance their skills. It is not designed to replace people. That's the issue America is facing in this war. America thinks that by using sophisticated air defense, supercarriers, and stealth fighter jets, it can reduce casualties and win the war. It's turning out not to be the case.

Why? Because people are much more creative, much more resilient, and much more determined than technology.

If you have a group of people together, they're always going to figure out a way to defeat your technology. Imagine you build an invincible robot with machine guns and 360-degree night vision. If I fight this robot one-on-one, I'm dead. But I'm a human being; I'm not stupid. I'm going to lure this robot into a dark forest or a cave where it's going to stumble and where I can maybe throw a rock or pour water on it. Because technology is static, people are dynamic, creative, and spontaneous. That's what makes people so wonderful. We're not afraid to die for what we believe in. A robot is just going to do what a robot's going to do, so it's completely predictable. We are not predictable.

That's why if you insist on using technology and drones as your main military strategy, you will lose this war. You have to commit your people to total war. You have to find people who are willing to die for what they believe in, and then you'll win. And that's why I believe that ultimately, America will lose this war in Iran—because the American people don't have the political will to fight it. I don't care how much money you put into this war. You can spend a hundred trillion dollars. I don't care how much technology you have. You're still going to lose this war unless you're able to galvanize the patriotism and political will of your people.

How can Israel become the host for Pax Judaica if it's a pariah state?

Public opinion does not matter in geopolitics. Rome was a genocidal state. No one cared. It still became an empire that lasted for a thousand years. Even today, we still worship Rome. The Aztecs were known for human sacrifice; it didn't matter. They still became the empire of Mexico. The British created all these wars in Europe, enslaved the Indian population, destroyed their economy, and stole trillions from them. They addicted the Chinese to opium. Do we ever talk about this? If we had an opinion poll back in the 1850s, I think most of the world would have said the British Empire is evil and genocidal. We still worship the British Empire today.

Public opinion does not matter. We've come to this delusion that our opinions matter in geopolitics. They don't. What matters is power.

Will the war transfer wealth from the old to the young in the US, or worsen it?

This is an excellent question. As this war continues and chaos spreads throughout the world, more money will be transferred to the old than to the young. All this generational inequality that we're seeing in America will worsen. The reason is that in a time of chaos and conflict, capital always triumphs. Capital is able to foresee risk, distribute it properly, and take advantage of it. If I have a trillion dollars, it's almost impossible for me to lose my money, and I can make more. I can invest a billion in America, a billion in Iran, and a billion in Israel. I can't possibly lose. But if you have $1,000, I guarantee you're going to lose all your money.

The reality right now is that the old—not all the old, but a minority of the old, the oligarchy—have all the capital, and the young have nothing. It's the young who will give up all their money to the old, and the young who will be asked to die in the Middle East so that the old can maintain their power. That's a historical pattern.

Will the two-week ceasefire hold?

No. Forget the ceasefire. It's all theater. Think about who is negotiating it: Jared Kushner and Mike Pompeo, the same two guys who screwed up the negotiations in Oman which led to this war. And where is it taking place? In Pakistan, a vassal state of the United States. These negotiations will go nowhere.

Why won't a new global economic system emerge after the US-centric one collapses?

The basis of the global economy is the US dollar. The US dollar is basically a contract system. When I use the US dollar, it's a contract that our trade will be honored. But with a contract system, you also need an enforcement mechanism. If you don't honor the contract, someone has to come beat you up. Otherwise, you'll just ignore it. That's what the US military is for.

There are certain problems with this system. First, it's actually very costly to create. Why? Because you are absorbing all the risk. As the US economy, you print US dollars to enable the world to trade. When you do that, you are collecting a tax, but at the same time, it's putting tremendous strain on your economy. This leads to financialization, which is just risk and speculation. All this excess money being created around the world has to be absorbed into your economy, which causes inflation and makes things unaffordable for your people. The population in America must absorb the cost of excess liquidity in the world.

The second problem is the military. The military must be willing to fight any wars around the world at any time.

So the question is: is there any nation in the world besides America that is willing to absorb the cost of being the global reserve currency and willing to fight a war to enforce this mechanism anytime, anywhere? The answer is no. Hell no. It is unbelievable that America agreed to this system in the first place. Most Americans would say we just got stuck with it, and certain people benefited, but most people don't. The idea that anyone—be it Russia or China—is going to come and say, "Oh, we'll just take over the system," is just not going to happen. No one is going to replace America. The global economy is just going to fracture because no one is willing to accept the cost. It's just too expensive.

It's hard for a group of nation-states to figure out how to share the benefits. It's much easier to have an empire impose its power on you. For nations to work together peacefully is very unsustainable because of domestic concerns, where each population will want to maximize its benefit from the relationship.

How will the transformation from materialistic to spiritual values occur?

I didn't say everyone will experience this transformation. What I'm saying is that those who undergo the transformation will most likely survive the coming world collapse. You can choose to be materialistic—and most people will—but they won't survive. Those who do undergo the transformation will survive. Why do they undergo it? Because they see the world collapsing around them and they are looking for comfort, a story, and an explanation. And so they turn to religion.

The reality is that in the coming 50 years of chaos and war, I would say 90% of humanity will be wiped out. A lot of these people will be wiped out because they refuse to adapt to the new world. They refuse to believe that a new world is coming and that they should prepare for it. They refuse to change their minds.

If our efforts are defined by secret societies, what is the significance of our efforts?

It's absolutely pointless to worry about secret societies. It's absolutely pointless to worry about others. What you can do is live your life to the best of your ability. You can be focused on learning, on developing yourself spiritually, intellectually, and emotionally. You can be focused on reading books and asking questions. If you do that, you'll be fine. Stop worrying about secret societies, stop worrying about the end of the world, and just focus on your own personal transformation.

How will Chinese students studying in the United States be perceived in the future?

The reality is that the age of globalization is over. The idea that Chinese students learn English, hop on a plane, go to America, study for four years, and come back to get a good job—that era is over. And quite honestly, I don't even know why Chinese students do this in the first place. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that China is not a real nation-state; it's just a projection, a mirage created by the global economy.

Chinese students now are focused on getting a degree in America. It's just a piece of paper. They don't care enough about an education, about learning. That's the great myth about Chinese students—that they are the best in the world because they love learning and are disciplined. That's not true. Chinese students are extremely extrinsically motivated. They care about the grades and the degree. Once you take that away, they don't even know what to do. They play video games every day or just sit around and do nothing. If Chinese students are to thrive in the future, they need to learn passion. They need to learn intrinsic motivation. They need to love learning for itself.