Predictive History

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Predictive History

Civilization #3: The Religious Imagination

For most of human history, we have been peaceful, egalitarian, and artistic. About 300,000 years ago, our species, Homo sapiens, was born in Africa. Then, 50,000 years ago, due to climate change, we started to spread around the world. Throughout most of our history, we have been hunter-

Civilization #2: Religion and the Dawn of Society

We previously discussed three prehistoric sites: Göbekli Tepe, Jericho, and Çatalhöyük. The argument I made, which is the general scholarly consensus, is that what compelled the transition to agriculture was the religious beliefs of the people at that time. It was humanity's religious impulse that drove our transition

Civilization #1: Explaining Humanity's Transition to Agriculture

Why did humanity transition from a hunter-gatherer society to agriculture? In the traditional paradigm—a sophisticated word that just means story, model, or understanding—we transitioned because we were first hunter-gatherers. We lived in groups of about 20 to 50 people and roamed the land looking for food.

Geo-Strategy END: Psychohistory (The Science of Imagining the Future)

In this final discussion, I want to talk about Hope. I want to show you the future. The argument I want to leave you with is something Dante said in The Divine Comedy: The future is not what happens to you; it's not something that you wait for.

Geo-Strategy #11: The Second American Civil War

We will be discussing the second American Civil War. I want to make the argument that a conflict is very likely, and so we'll be discussing why it's likely, how this war will manifest itself, and what will happen after this war. America's History

Geo-Strategy #10: Putin's Strategic Imagination

Vladimir Putin loves his country, Russia, and believes that Western consumerism has corrupted his nation. He recognizes that the source of Western consumerism is the American Empire. Therefore, to completely free his people, he needs to destroy the Empire. Historically, empires die when three things happen concurrently. The Three Conditions

Geo-Strategy #9: Putin's War for the Soul of Russia

This week, in a speech to the Russian people, Vladimir Putin said that all of Russia must now prepare for Total War. Even if you are not fighting on the front lines in Ukraine, pretend you are. Because of this speech, many analysts believe that Putin is preparing Russia for

Geo-Strategy #8: The Iran Trap

There are three major forces pushing the United States towards war with Iran. The first is the Israel Lobby, which is composed of both Jewish and Christian interests. Representing the Jewish interest is an organization called AIPAC. They have a membership of about 100,000, but they're very

Geo-Strategy #7: Who Killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi?

When you do history or analyze current events, you will always encounter three major problems. The first is that there's very little information you can work with; truth is very limited. The second problem is that the information you have may not be true; there's also

Geo-Strategy #6: America's Imperial Hubris

Last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president and that if he does, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United States will go to war with Iran. The question today is: Trump wants to go to war, but will the US military agree? Ultimately,

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