Predictive History

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Predictive History

Game Theory #10: The Law of Asymmetry

We continue our discussion of the US-Iran war that is happening right now. I made the prediction that the United States will lose this war, and last time we did an overview of the military and strategic position. Today, we're going to provide a theoretical framework for

Great Books #5: The Odyssey

The Odyssey is a sequel to the Iliad, and it's a family story—a story about a homecoming. There are three main characters: Odysseus, who is the main character and why it's called the Odyssey; Penelope, who is his wife; and Telemachus, who is their son.

Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War

World War III has started. The United States and Israel have begun to attack Iran, and we are now in the fourth day of this war. We can expect this war to last for many weeks, possibly also for many years. But I promise you that after this war is

Game Theory #8: Communist Specter

The 20th century was defined by the Cold War, an ideological struggle between capitalism and communism. For the longest time, we believed that capitalism and communism were polar opposites—a dialectic, a black and white. But if that is the case, then how do we explain China? For the longest

Great Books #4: The Conscious Universe

The Iliad is a war of wills. The epic starts with the battle between Agamemnon and Achilles. They're trying to impose their will on each other, and it leads to disaster for the Greeks because Hector and the Trojans are now about to destroy them. The Greeks, led

Game Theory #7: America's Game

We have already discussed the British Empire and how it ultimately triumphed over its main rivals—the French, the Spanish, and the Dutch—because of three major powers. 1. The Bank of England: What made the Bank of England so important is that it could absorb foreign capital from all

Game Theory #6: The World's Bank

There is a strange game being played in the world, and it's worth examining the behaviors it produces. Consider three things that, on the surface, don't seem to make any sense. First, many of the best and brightest in developing nations spend an inordinate amount of

Great Books #3: Poets and Prophets

The Iliad is the foundation of Greek civilization, which is the greatest, most creative civilization in human history. It gave us Plato, Thucydides, Herodotus, Aeschylus, Euripides, and Sophocles. Greek civilization is essentially the foundation for Western civilization. The question we will look at is: how is it possible that one

Game Theory #5: The World Game

Today we examine the question: why is it that states, countries, and nations rise and fall? Let's start with an example you know pretty well: the Warring States period. At this point in history, around 250 BCE, there are many powerful states, for example, the Chu, the Zhao,

Game Theory #4: The Immigration Trap

Let's look at the United States, which is where most immigrants go. As you can see from this chart, there are certain ethnic groups that do better than other ethnic groups. Indian people make the most money in America. This makes sense because India has a very competitive

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